Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd19d790ae7e1779d7b3c80dbd3c60caf680dcee0830cc2baabc69eb83222f45e

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,668,368
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,139,608

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,668,368 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 750 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	9c	55,606$4,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,799.68	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	47,386$1,132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,132.48	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	44,100$689 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$688.7	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	1c	30,936$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.61	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes	0c	27,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	40	0%0 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	12c	26,208$3,166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,165.79	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed No	72c	23,000$16,560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,439.97	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	78c	22,897$17,964 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,932.73	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	22,044$2,625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,624.66	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes	15c	20,272$3,049 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,048.51	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	27c	19,000$5,198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,197.7	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	27c	17,553$4,762 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,761.56	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc6…e280backed Yes	10c	17,500$1,680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,680	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	19c	13,891$2,602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,601.93	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	17c	13,448$2,222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,221.52	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	17c	13,103$2,267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,267.1	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	6c	11,442$675 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$674.64	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	15c	11,335$1,705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,705.02	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	17c	10,399$1,723 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,722.56	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	2c	10,000$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.5	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	8c	10,000$849 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$848.99	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	10c	9,900$1,002 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,002.06	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes	10c	9,716$934 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$933.92	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+42%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	7c	9,634$711 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$710.84	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes	44c	9,524$4,176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,176.16	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	17c	9,454$1,611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,610.95	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	31c	9,235$2,882 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,882.01	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes	4c	9,200$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.4	99	23.2%23 W · 76 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+60.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No	79c	8,618$6,774 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,844.83	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes	1c	8,589$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.65	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	7c	8,000$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.38	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c1…1215backed Yes	28c	7,414$2,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,100	46	21.7%10 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	14c	7,392$1,066 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,066.42	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	7,250$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.43	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	7c	7,197$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$502.1	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd4b…cac3backed No	75c	6,708$5,016 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,691.55	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	12c	6,214$741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$740.55	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	40c	6,109$2,443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,443.49	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd536…6659backed Yes	36c	6,038$2,185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,184.98	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	42c	6,005$2,534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,534	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	31c	5,761$1,806 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,805.56	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	5,700$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.02	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7be4…c73cbacked Yes	3c	4,973$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.83	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+14%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	5c	4,693$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.93	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedd2…a09cbacked Yes	3c	4,460$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.06	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	5cpaid	+700.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	4,200$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.3	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ff…9708backed Yes	6c	4,175$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.98	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	26c	3,932$1,005 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,005	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	12c	3,825$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447.69	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22c3…b145backed Yes	12c	3,788$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.26	64	14.1%9 W · 55 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	9c	3,659$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.91	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	67c	3,549$2,384 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,164.91	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	78c	3,517$2,734 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$783.33	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	3,467$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	5c	3,460$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes	6c	3,442$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.71	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	11c	3,359$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370.45	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	22c	3,244$725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$725.04	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes	40c	3,026$1,203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,203.36	67	47.8%32 W · 35 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+49.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf25e…f9c0backed Yes	13c	3,011$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.41	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	3,000$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.76	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,987$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.21	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	69c	2,979$2,046 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$932.81	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes	4c	2,966$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	38c	2,945$1,119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,118.52	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes	20c	2,887$576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x017b…301dbacked Yes	9c	2,810$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.99	87	24.1%21 W · 66 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	2,804$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.04	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	9c	2,800$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.48	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	22c	2,687$579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$579.41	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	29c	2,607$746 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$745.54	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	14c	2,601$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.59	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x794e…5358backed Yes	25c	2,600$653 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$652.5	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	63c	2,596$1,626 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$970.17	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	2c	2,525$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.73	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes	6c	2,505$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.55	114	18.4%21 W · 93 L	+10.0wins	+0.09per pick	10cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc47b…9843backed Yes	2c	2,502$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Yes	32c	2,494$791 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$791.16	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	+3.0wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	17c	2,479$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.93	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes	37c	2,466$910 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$910.11	141	37.6%53 W · 88 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc73…d73abacked Yes	31c	2,450$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$749.56	51	29.4%15 W · 36 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14cf…d019backed Yes	2c	2,437$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	78	11.5%9 W · 69 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	2,426$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.24	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	10c	2,419$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	2,407$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.68	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked Yes	9c	2,400$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.84	143	32.9%47 W · 96 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	71c	2,394$1,703 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$691.19	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No	79c	2,390$1,896 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$493.16	55	38.2%21 W · 34 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	2c	2,356$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.46	179	17.9%32 W · 147 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	8c	2,344$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.14	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	25c	2,320$574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.55	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	4c	2,273$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.87	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	23c	2,252$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x294a…bbbabacked Yes	4c	2,235$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.79	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+210.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	19c	2,203$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$427.83	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb614…2a44backed Yes	32c	2,181$690 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$690	113	39.8%45 W · 68 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	6c	2,162$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed Yes	14c	2,144$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.13	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cca…f402backed Yes	5c	2,126$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event