TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,276,588
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,185

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,276,588 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4b43…256ebacked Yes0c57,693$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5db…60eabacked Yes0c57,684$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6880%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d87…c911backed Yes0c57,461$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f9a…410abacked Yes0c57,461$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1efd…1edebacked Yes0c57,287$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.29110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe549…3c93backed Yes0c57,248$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c9…490bbacked Yes0c57,204$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6ee…08a7backed Yes0c57,199$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf016…74efbacked Yes0c56,713$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecd2…b769backed Yes0c56,706$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71f1…3768backed Yes0c56,697$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d98…68efbacked Yes0c56,693$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c8a…6d68backed Yes0c56,693$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x533e…d305backed Yes0c56,693$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6970%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40a8…60a3backed Yes0c56,693$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6990%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ef7…9973backed Yes0c56,590$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe68a…273dbacked Yes0c56,584$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8144…fe3fbacked Yes0c56,361$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe19…cf01backed Yes0c56,169$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3024…a1ddbacked Yes0c56,148$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d40…13dbbacked Yes0c56,104$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca22…13b4backed Yes0c56,066$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8804…8f5bbacked Yes0c56,061$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1330…331abacked Yes0c56,001$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb7c…6022backed Yes0c55,944$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd252…55c7backed Yes0c55,935$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02de…6469backed Yes0c55,848$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.85110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d5f…4a3cbacked Yes0c55,753$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbf6…5657backed Yes0c55,753$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ea…6e84backed Yes0c55,729$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9de…f3eebacked Yes0c55,724$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x798f…719ebacked Yes0c55,719$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf336…6f54backed Yes0c55,713$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa63b…3128backed Yes0c55,634$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06db…17eebacked Yes0c55,620$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eae…1fafbacked Yes0c55,606$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde65…460abacked Yes0c55,605$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x734b…2d4dbacked Yes0c55,597$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b0e…a6febacked Yes0c55,593$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…ff4bbacked Yes0c55,593$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x135a…1bccbacked Yes0c55,549$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7176…bd58backed Yes0c54,966$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34f4…eaaabacked Yes0c54,961$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0459…5bdabacked Yes0c54,929$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d40…31d8backed Yes0c54,867$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3acb…dd5ebacked Yes0c54,867$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ce…341bbacked Yes0c54,867$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ddf…bd12backed Yes0c54,867$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff42…e9a9backed Yes0c54,844$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x754e…ab57backed Yes0c54,835$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8200…4df9backed Yes0c54,800$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a2d…de20backed Yes0c54,800$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6ae…ee1ebacked Yes0c54,800$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb3d…4ce3backed Yes0c54,748$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda43…e900backed Yes0c54,745$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce1…cc10backed Yes0c54,745$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x910f…6a9bbacked Yes0c54,670$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e9…1cbbbacked Yes0c54,629$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x042c…6f51backed Yes0c54,624$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.62110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x452e…040cbacked Yes0c54,607$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee5…40e4backed Yes0c54,579$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f41…7867backed Yes0c54,492$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa30d…741bbacked Yes0c54,407$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x159f…df22backed Yes0c54,298$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x072a…0129backed Yes0c54,254$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x222e…7b0abacked Yes0c54,118$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf73…f43abacked Yes0c54,063$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc44…757dbacked Yes0c53,893$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20a2…2020backed Yes0c53,793$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c69…1423backed Yes0c53,580$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeb0…d489backed Yes0c53,580$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.58100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1010…94cdbacked Yes0c53,511$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3943…f4dabacked Yes0c53,511$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c94…8328backed Yes0c53,511$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a57…f7f4backed Yes0c53,492$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11ab…e7c1backed Yes0c53,479$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc277…14b8backed Yes0c53,425$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e63…e38fbacked Yes0c53,159$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4284…f035backed Yes0c52,826$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8380%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5714…6c57backed Yes0c52,718$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51de…b8dfbacked Yes0c52,480$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecad…af4abacked Yes0c52,411$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd000…786abacked Yes0c52,302$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee1…6d16backed Yes0c52,252$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa20b…0a34backed Yes0c52,117$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7250…648fbacked Yes0c52,059$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9e…661cbacked Yes0c51,117$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf041…5187backed Yes0c50,949$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eae…5964backed Yes0c50,949$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x666f…aafdbacked Yes0c50,117$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0c9…0a27backed Yes0c49,849$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3d0…d886backed Yes0c49,195$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb2d…5398backed Yes0c34,651$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a3…9dc9backed Yes0c33,747$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aa6…ed12backed Yes0c32,747$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4577…bad3backed Yes0c32,738$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf3…dab9backed Yes0c32,483$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c31,022$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.021290.8%1 W · 128 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+675.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.