Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8a8d7226db3d7f8d6a781a5c84f94963e0c51bc5eabf10ee9b84297c8db866e

Rebuilt 33 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $920,980
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $381,251

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $920,980 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	28,312$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.31	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed Yes	1c	18,887$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.54	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	16,716$635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$635.27	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0828…746fbacked Yes	7c	15,526$1,097 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,096.63	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	13,863$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.98	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	13c	13,107$1,697 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,696.56	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	7c	12,503$894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$893.6	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	11,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8d58backed Yes	18c	10,356$1,862 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,862.26	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07a4…b920backed Yes	1c	10,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-54%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e2a…534ebacked Yes	21c	8,565$1,758 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,758.22	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	7,278$704 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$704.34	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	8c	7,000$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	6,667$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a84…bfa1backed Yes	4c	6,636$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	12c	6,468$806 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$806.41	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	10c	6,243$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600.35	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	5,894$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.96	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	5,330$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.92	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	5c	5,130$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.55	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	4,400$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.32	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	4,208$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.83	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	6c	4,040$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.92	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	13c	4,000$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$539.54	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	12c	3,833$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.27	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	14c	3,820$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ab4…bcfbbacked Yes	4c	3,662$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.58	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.16per pick	32cpaid	-78%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	4c	3,642$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.17	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	8c	3,473$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.82	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	13c	2,969$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371.21	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	1c	2,720$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.09	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	2c	2,650$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.45	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd242…a22dbacked Yes	1c	2,237$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	2c	2,233$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.23	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2959…bdf1backed Yes	15c	2,183$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.2	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	13c	2,095$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.3	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	2,082$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.32	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe86d…ada3backed Yes	16c	2,025$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.03	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	9c	2,000$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	7c	1,955$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.72	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes	19c	1,905$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.37	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x055a…7bbcbacked Yes	5c	1,762$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.3	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	1,629$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.16	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	5c	1,626$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.19	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	6c	1,600$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.91	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc45f…c6dabacked Yes	19c	1,600$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,585$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.33	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x66d0…c8f3backed Yes	15c	1,557$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.07	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-80.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb29…ea70backed Yes	1c	1,523$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.11	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,523$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.31	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	6c	1,500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf22f…7714backed Yes	14c	1,459$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+79.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d99…854fbacked Yes	14c	1,371$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.48	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes	15c	1,258$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.09	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes	14c	1,200$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	101	14.9%15 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8f…3186backed Yes	13c	1,150$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	19cpaid	-78.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61f0…529ebacked Yes	19c	1,029$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.22	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742e…d945backed Yes	5c	1,022$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.11	62	21%13 W · 49 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	3c	1,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd48…03c6backed Yes	17c	1,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-85.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	9c	1,000$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77ca…2f7fbacked Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	9c	970$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.2	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	3c	948.16$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.75	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce2e…c77bbacked Yes	11c	900$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31c4…622fbacked Yes	2c	882.51$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.12	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	18cpaid	+46.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes	4c	853.18$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfab1…4e6cbacked Yes	18c	849.98$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.5	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf70f…1b9abacked Yes	8c	801.12$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.09	152	46.7%71 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	6c	770$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.91	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	759.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.17	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4288…00e8backed Yes	10c	730.47$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.13	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	700$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.1	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	11c	674.18$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.64	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	15c	666.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bfb…7632backed Yes	15c	666.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-35%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes	22c	662.73$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.77	117	25.6%30 W · 87 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7be4…c73cbacked Yes	2c	654.07$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.19	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+14%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa741…bd1fbacked Yes	18c	649.99$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cd2…a384backed Yes	17c	640$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.8	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes	13c	626.88$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.49	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f14…905dbacked Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	49	24.5%12 W · 37 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+64%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes	2c	603.47$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.89	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes	5c	599.98$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	190	20.5%39 W · 151 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x709b…1001backed Yes	13c	599.96$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.99	82	36.6%30 W · 52 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c4a…d721backed Yes	17c	597.32$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes	20c	590.91$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	14c	586.98$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	17c	584.42$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes	3c	575.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	131	16.8%22 W · 109 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	2c	557.57$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed67…0112backed Yes	15c	550$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2437…8480backed Yes	6c	525$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	9c	511.56$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c6…ed71backed Yes	17c	511.1$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	4c	500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event