TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,713,299
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$215,664

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,713,299 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 310 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c105,271$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.271290.8%1 W · 128 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+675.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e1…fab2backed Yes0c77,410$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81b9…9f8bbacked Yes0c77,410$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0853…9b9abacked Yes0c77,361$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x047e…e434backed Yes0c77,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ec8…abc8backed Yes0c77,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b61…5f51backed Yes0c77,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf548…2647backed Yes0c77,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4218…e1febacked Yes0c77,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61b1…3868backed Yes0c77,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e4d…adaabacked Yes0c77,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5779…bd1dbacked Yes0c77,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81ee…25c4backed Yes0c77,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ce…fd00backed Yes0c77,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd248…0ae1backed Yes0c77,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa605…a97dbacked Yes0c77,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf65…e98abacked Yes0c77,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3281…3b42backed Yes0c77,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e08…d1d5backed Yes0c77,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ec…849bbacked Yes0c77,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904a…857abacked Yes0c77,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb26d…0915backed Yes0c77,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0e…21aebacked Yes0c77,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3191…ef6fbacked Yes0c77,282$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1972…8a81backed Yes0c77,282$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa839…486cbacked Yes0c77,282$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf67f…4f77backed Yes0c77,282$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf22…5220backed Yes0c77,282$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd61a…bce7backed Yes0c77,282$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfacd…5c15backed Yes0c77,282$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5e2…b53fbacked Yes0c77,282$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11dd…858ebacked Yes0c77,282$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47cc…072abacked Yes0c77,233$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b56…fdafbacked Yes0c77,173$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf591…0619backed Yes0c77,156$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9392…5539backed Yes0c76,146$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x062e…d437backed Yes0c74,260$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52f9…f15dbacked Yes0c74,232$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x852d…9818backed Yes0c74,182$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7884…4d9dbacked Yes0c74,182$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0594…e07cbacked Yes0c69,667$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x114e…1eb2backed Yes0c57,828$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7595…414bbacked Yes0c57,568$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04e4…3d99backed Yes0c57,563$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16aa…83e9backed Yes0c57,558$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf420…4590backed Yes0c57,553$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82af…a5aabacked Yes0c57,540$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde01…6a97backed Yes0c57,531$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x852c…31a8backed Yes0c57,520$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.52100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff8f…0313backed Yes0c57,506$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2538…9d05backed Yes0c57,488$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb8b…d48bbacked Yes0c57,478$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2cd…8019backed Yes0c57,468$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.47120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b96…2809backed Yes0c57,453$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1cb…c869backed Yes0c57,453$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d2e…b5bcbacked Yes0c57,453$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd49b…ae11backed Yes0c57,422$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55c8…380bbacked Yes0c57,422$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fd…2fc1backed Yes0c57,286$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f9…5af6backed Yes0c57,237$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e3…15aebacked Yes0c57,176$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0e2…17dcbacked Yes0c57,176$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa80d…8c5cbacked Yes0c57,176$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x013b…4a41backed Yes0c57,176$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe84b…853cbacked Yes0c57,100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e40…a6f2backed Yes0c57,100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec77…ca05backed Yes0c57,087$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbba4…9686backed Yes0c57,083$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07ea…b7b2backed Yes0c56,987$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd9…4ff0backed Yes0c56,972$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53f8…4a85backed Yes0c56,846$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb33f…43a3backed Yes0c56,828$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6cd…0c75backed Yes0c56,818$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb106…84ebbacked Yes0c56,818$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x988b…09ddbacked Yes0c56,818$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb96a…621cbacked Yes0c56,818$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d75…841bbacked Yes0c56,697$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0077…524abacked Yes0c56,697$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9041…d1cfbacked Yes0c56,697$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x304f…83e1backed Yes0c56,677$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6986…aee0backed Yes0c56,665$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb65d…45eabacked Yes0c56,665$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0b…db99backed Yes0c56,665$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc85a…c25ebacked Yes0c56,665$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa7…eff6backed Yes0c56,665$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a6…ede2backed Yes0c56,665$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72bd…a0babacked Yes0c56,665$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x848d…1523backed Yes0c56,628$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5f…6689backed Yes0c56,628$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bd8…9b35backed Yes0c56,628$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x232d…f972backed Yes0c56,628$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09e0…d9dcbacked Yes0c56,628$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d7…4f0cbacked Yes0c56,628$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d2…2e5abacked Yes0c56,628$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8397…0bd9backed Yes0c56,628$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9e8…7c49backed Yes0c56,628$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b8a…4a6bbacked Yes0c56,628$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf85…bd74backed Yes0c56,628$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x413c…9d11backed Yes0c56,628$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f3c…9d5fbacked Yes0c56,623$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.