Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c077a0ce7625d496bb0e3aac66d4cf1158c078520c267c202654aa1eea9554d

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 28, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $679,474
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $507,161

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $679,474 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	38,600$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.2	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x598b…2bf7backed Yes	0c	27,038$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	14,499$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	10,120$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	0c	10,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c2…6b54backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	14cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x62e2…99e6backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9447…91f2backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	7,300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	0c	6,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x294a…bbbabacked Yes	0c	6,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+210.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb66b…e5c9backed Yes	0c	5,955$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x142e…f6e4backed Yes	0c	4,304$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f45…2807backed Yes	0c	4,070$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event