Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44d6eac035b979c821e283f77263122504cb5546279d6a22ff0ad154126cb095

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $403,764
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $138,667

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $403,764 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x07a4…b920backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-54%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	13,443$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	10c	13,107$1,332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,331.52	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	11,191$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.76	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	10,932$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.41	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	10,000$862 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$862.26	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	9,990$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.97	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	8,564$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.99	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	7,990$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.93	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	3c	6,995$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.85	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0828…746fbacked Yes	2c	6,018$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	2c	5,808$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.23	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	5,277$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.07	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	10c	4,886$486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485.91	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	4,630$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.72	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,133$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.09	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes	1c	3,244$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	131	16.8%22 W · 109 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	8c	3,000$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	1c	2,736$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.78	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f14…905dbacked Yes	4c	2,570$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	49	24.5%12 W · 37 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+64%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	2c	2,462$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.19	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	2,288$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.65	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	2,107$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.24	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	2,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.46	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b7a…4aa5backed Yes	1c	2,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	76	6.6%5 W · 71 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,863$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.28	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,782$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.96	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes	7c	1,533$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.99	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafe5…f7aebacked Yes	3c	1,521$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	1,510$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	5c	1,487$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.25	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,360$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.92	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	1,344$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd72f…2806backed Yes	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	+174.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	2c	1,240$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.49	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes	1c	1,168$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c54…1d08backed Yes	2c	1,136$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe86d…ada3backed Yes	4c	1,135$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.55	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64cc…0da1backed Yes	5c	1,015$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	111	18.9%21 W · 90 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	2c	994.97$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	4c	980.2$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.84	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	949.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.84	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	10c	745.33$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.53	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	705.34$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.28	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41bd…1196backed Yes	2c	625$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes	5c	600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	190	20.5%39 W · 151 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	3c	592.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.19	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd48…03c6backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-85.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8d58backed Yes	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	4c	499.79$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.65	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	4c	459.11$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.86	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	4c	410.03$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.1	102	16.7%17 W · 85 L	+6.7wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	7c	379.67$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.12	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	349.66$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	10c	321.98$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.2	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	4c	320$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25c9…2c0ebacked Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf804…8028backed Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	299.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.15	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	5c	289.64$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.57	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	5c	288.4$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.84	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	7c	283.84$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.07	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf52b…5bf3backed Yes	5c	250$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	76	7.9%6 W · 70 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	7c	203.32$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	85	5.9%5 W · 80 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e7e…61c0backed Yes	8c	150$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	97	10.3%10 W · 87 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5883…9b69backed Yes	11c	123.18$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.55	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbba…b524backed Yes	9c	122.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2280…4ef5backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	82	15.9%13 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4261…9fc5backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+36.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf775…f817backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	54	14.8%8 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdbd…47a6backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x107b…f694backed Yes	11c	96$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event