Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eb9bc0a7a0d945643f6477f49250ca0621d177435bc530e6df3ad860ea0b589

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $346,743
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $124,778

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $346,743 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	17,845$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.13	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	12,495$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.98	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	10,523$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.53	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	5c	9,500$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.06	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	2c	7,000$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.18	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	6,781$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.07	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0828…746fbacked Yes	2c	6,032$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	4,323$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.26	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes	1c	3,837$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	131	16.8%22 W · 109 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	3,658$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.76	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	4c	2,500$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.5	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,460$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.87	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	2,092$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.26	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd72f…2806backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	+174.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	6c	2,000$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	2,000$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.11	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,923$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.2	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	1,874$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.7	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,700$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.99	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	1c	1,580$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.45	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	1,551$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	1,519$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.01	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25c9…2c0ebacked Yes	5c	1,500$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.5	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	3c	1,500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.7	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a18…2d35backed Yes	1c	1,499$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.12per pick	10cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc5…8a35backed Yes	2c	1,464$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.38	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	1c	1,441$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.66	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	3c	1,386$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.55	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	5c	1,272$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.11	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	3c	1,209$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,130$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.21	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x294a…bbbabacked Yes	5c	1,070$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.57	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+210.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	1c	994.97$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.94	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde4a…20cbbacked Yes	3c	946.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	4c	900.23$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.11	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	862.73$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.42	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	4c	761.57$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.76	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	750$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.25	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	14cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes	4c	699.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.1	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes	4c	691.22$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.42	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes	3c	600$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	190	20.5%39 W · 151 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d99…854fbacked Yes	2c	600$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	2c	580.41$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.39	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	4c	571.95$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.03	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	4c	549.8$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.11	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	3c	420$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda86…f276backed Yes	5c	418$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.84	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x68fe…ef80backed Yes	3c	409.76$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.32	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.16per pick	39cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x406c…ec46backed Yes	5c	384.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	339.69$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe86d…ada3backed Yes	4c	330.54$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	4c	226.37$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event