Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeb4989c1b4235ea5b3b7b838a74415fe5941eb8b746c63d65ab33828f205981

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,705,443
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,630,579

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,705,443 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 455 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	269,523$7,333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,333.29	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	2c	52,706$972 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$971.74	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	43,349$856 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$855.64	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0594…e07cbacked Yes	0c	34,540$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.54	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	2c	31,830$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.75	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes	1c	31,424$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.56	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	+139.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	4c	27,974$1,152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,152	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	3c	27,865$749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$748.86	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	27,712$1,462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,462.36	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	24,502$1,001 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000.75	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	3c	23,877$806 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$805.61	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes	2c	22,603$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.95	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	3c	21,342$726 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$726.31	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37bf…a72fbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	11c	17,690$2,012 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,011.52	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	16,500$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	4c	14,610$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.54	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes	8c	14,600$1,230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,230	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb89f…f169backed Yes	8c	13,735$1,057 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,057.02	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c2…6b54backed Yes	1c	13,445$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	14cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	2c	13,336$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.43	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	12,555$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.77	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	6c	12,515$706 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$706.21	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	9c	11,117$1,053 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,053	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd79a…9167backed Yes	10c	11,117$1,066 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,066	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	11,085$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.13	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	15c	11,000$1,596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,595.96	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd536…6659backed Yes	10c	11,000$1,097 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,097.2	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	4c	10,905$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.56	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	11c	10,886$1,202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,202.01	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa07f…dc26backed Yes	1c	10,640$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed Yes	9c	10,185$904 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$903.94	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	10,141$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.02	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	10,006$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.81	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe97f…413abacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	9,205$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.28	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	5c	9,074$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.76	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x752f…cfd5backed Yes	2c	8,912$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.28	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	7cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	8,620$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.42	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8303…d68bbacked Yes	3c	8,497$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.25	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14cf…d019backed Yes	3c	8,274$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.88	78	11.5%9 W · 69 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	16c	8,000$1,309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,309.38	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	11c	7,577$849 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$849.44	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c1…1215backed Yes	3c	7,557$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	46	21.7%10 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	15c	7,516$1,112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,112.24	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed Yes	8c	7,185$602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602.48	64	57.8%37 W · 27 L	+6.7wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	1c	6,976$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.79	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa316…780cbacked Yes	1c	6,907$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.04	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f9…a9ddbacked Yes	1c	6,888$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.27	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	8c	6,409$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.63	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	4c	6,213$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.68	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	1c	6,157$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.1	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	6,014$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.45	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	5,880$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.06	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	5,859$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.6	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f1…af59backed Yes	1c	5,703$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-88.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	5,698$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.05	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6cca…f402backed Yes	6c	5,396$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.8	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes	6c	5,248$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.6	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf3d…516ebacked Yes	0c	5,232$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	8c	5,085$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	5,079$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.51	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes	4c	4,923$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.88	114	18.4%21 W · 93 L	+10.0wins	+0.09per pick	10cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7302…27e7backed Yes	1c	4,572$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.76	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	6c	4,549$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.09	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89e1…5323backed Yes	9c	4,540$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.93	48	20.8%10 W · 38 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2094…16d0backed Yes	1c	4,406$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedd2…a09cbacked Yes	1c	4,366$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.73	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	5cpaid	+700.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes	4c	4,362$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.6	149	28.2%42 W · 107 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	4,264$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.62	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes	4c	4,241$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.11	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	4,227$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	7c	4,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	1c	3,964$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	3,942$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.46	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed Yes	9c	3,914$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.32	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes	2c	3,840$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.75	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fb…3d55backed Yes	9c	3,829$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.42	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1c1…4628backed Yes	2c	3,721$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ada…9cc2backed Yes	3c	3,696$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	11c	3,671$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.6	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c83…d131backed Yes	1c	3,641$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb29…ea70backed Yes	3c	3,567$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.6	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	2c	3,499$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.03	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	7c	3,470$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.18	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes	1c	3,470$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.94	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	3c	3,373$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.35	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe11e…ff89backed Yes	2c	3,315$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.82	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	5c	3,270$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.83	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x384c…1d3ebacked Yes	1c	3,218$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.58	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+1.8wins	+0.14per pick	25cpaid	+77.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	3,207$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.5	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	1c	3,181$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.36	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed Yes	4c	3,139$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.52	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	3,085$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.13	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	3,082$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.83	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	4c	3,037$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc44d…79aabacked Yes	3c	3,001$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.89	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b7a…4aa5backed Yes	1c	3,000$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	76	6.6%5 W · 71 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x294a…bbbabacked Yes	1c	3,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+210.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb614…2a44backed Yes	7c	2,949$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.43	113	39.8%45 W · 68 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event