Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe764eb501f5e8464df0faee2e33684431ee0e84691d511e4457250a3d28ee935

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $696,412
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $362,998

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $696,412 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 335 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	28,921$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.92	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes	0c	26,906$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.32	40	0%0 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	21,478$1,469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,469.07	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	19,117$837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$837.06	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	5c	14,870$675 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$674.89	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	3c	14,398$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	12c	13,107$1,516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,515.51	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	12,873$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.53	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	11,843$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.2	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	10c	10,912$1,066 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,065.93	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc47b…9843backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7be4…c73cbacked Yes	0c	9,085$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.79	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+14%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed Yes	1c	8,627$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.75	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	13c	7,995$1,029 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,029.35	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	7c	7,613$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$541.07	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	7,200$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	9c	5,582$524 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$523.62	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	14c	5,229$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	18c	4,915$860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$860.42	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	3c	4,817$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.04	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0828…746fbacked Yes	2c	4,646$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.11	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	22c	4,572$1,012 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,011.65	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	4,324$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.48	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	4,249$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	15c	4,000$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610.35	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	3,746$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.42	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,697$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.92	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	1c	3,500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	10c	3,302$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.38	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	3c	3,292$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.48	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	7c	3,252$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.44	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3aaa…c18dbacked Yes	18c	3,154$562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$561.59	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+219.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	3,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	3,000$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	9c	2,778$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.99	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	4c	2,714$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.54	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	16c	2,652$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$429.92	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	20c	2,504$493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.04	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	4c	2,390$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.63	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	22c	2,312$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	3c	2,253$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.25	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	5c	2,233$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.8	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c1…1215backed Yes	19c	2,130$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	46	21.7%10 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07a4…b920backed Yes	2c	2,100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.9	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-54%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	18c	2,096$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc616…3571backed Yes	18c	2,089$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.05	109	24.8%27 W · 82 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	14c	2,047$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.89	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84fd…3910backed Yes	2c	2,022$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	13c	2,011$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.7	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	7c	2,000$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.72	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5464…9d3ebacked Yes	21c	1,916$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f0…529ebacked Yes	21c	1,793$379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.76	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	6c	1,750$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.23	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	8c	1,650$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.33	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	14c	1,625$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab4…bcfbbacked Yes	12c	1,583$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.01	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.16per pick	32cpaid	-78%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	24c	1,565$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370.93	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb29…ea70backed Yes	2c	1,541$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	1,529$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.92	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	12c	1,502$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.12	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01f4…443cbacked Yes	15c	1,500$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.43	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed Yes	16c	1,500$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	52	28.8%15 W · 37 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	7c	1,500$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	1,490$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.04	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	12c	1,481$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	7c	1,479$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.02	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,475$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.18	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	17c	1,471$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18b2…24efbacked Yes	23c	1,426$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.83	156	19.2%30 W · 126 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes	18c	1,313$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.82	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8423…b9c1backed Yes	8c	1,263$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d99…854fbacked Yes	13c	1,245$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.32	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	17c	1,179$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.43	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6669…6a01backed Yes	10c	1,139$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.28per pick	32cpaid	+83.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce2e…c77bbacked Yes	19c	1,100$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.5	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	14c	1,030$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.2	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	10c	1,009$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.12	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-32%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa316…780cbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f73…b38dbacked Yes	9c	999.99$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes	17c	999.97$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd48…03c6backed Yes	15c	998.56$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.39	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-85.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8d58backed Yes	18c	989.05$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.03	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	7c	975.61$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa14d…2563backed Yes	14c	971.55$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	145	15.9%23 W · 122 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	22c	920$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.4	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	911.96$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	9c	899.99$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.93	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	17c	897.76$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.5	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8f…3186backed Yes	19c	850$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.5	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	19cpaid	-78.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	12c	848.01$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.24	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1a…86febacked Yes	3c	832.8$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.82	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e78backed Yes	24c	829.99$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.2	56	41.1%23 W · 33 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes	5c	829.3$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.6	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	7c	824.61$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.48	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77ca…2f7fbacked Yes	24c	820$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.8	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35b8…898abacked Yes	18c	800$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742e…d945backed Yes	16c	800$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.8	62	21%13 W · 49 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	14c	800$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.2	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfef7…8367backed Yes	18c	777.78$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event