Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26fa23187c3d1666d6d63e28f4f405ccfaa57c2edd6cdb8354c91dfe770134cc

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,294,147
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $797,367

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,294,147 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 479 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	59,267$4,440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,439.69	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	11c	25,071$2,736 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,735.59	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	10c	24,966$2,427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,427.32	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	6c	24,381$1,529 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,528.81	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	13c	23,116$3,046 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,046.37	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	19,777$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.51	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	7c	17,598$1,246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,245.65	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes	0c	17,359$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.45	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7be4…c73cbacked Yes	1c	16,613$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.75	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+14%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	8c	15,905$1,291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,290.67	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	18c	14,336$2,589 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,589.16	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	9c	14,190$1,318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,318.23	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	13,661$837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$837.15	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	6c	13,360$753 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$753.32	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	13,070$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.07	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	20c	10,730$2,130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,129.9	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	11c	10,695$1,196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,195.82	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	6c	10,439$641 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640.51	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c1…1215backed Yes	17c	10,189$1,762 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,762.45	46	21.7%10 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes	15c	9,634$1,458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,457.57	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa316…780cbacked Yes	0c	8,157$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.68	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	5c	8,000$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.27	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	1c	8,000$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	6c	7,451$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.42	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	1c	6,943$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.64	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	18c	6,819$1,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,250.43	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	0c	6,626$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	6,158$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.97	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f23…90dbbacked Yes	1c	5,612$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.56	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes	1c	5,555$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+42%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	18c	5,000$896 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$896.3	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	99	23.2%23 W · 76 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+60.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82cf…0998backed Yes	0c	5,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+3.9wins	+0.21per pick	27cpaid	+81.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	5,000$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	4,933$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	24c	4,598$1,101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100.8	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	13c	4,460$566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.12	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	16c	4,422$714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$714.28	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9c8…b9cbbacked Yes	5c	4,408$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.78	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	+52.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	12c	4,289$524 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$524.47	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14d…2563backed Yes	4c	4,143$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186	145	15.9%23 W · 122 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	18c	4,112$733 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$732.72	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	13c	4,093$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	4,009$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.14	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	1c	4,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea85…efe5backed Yes	3c	4,000$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	62	14.5%9 W · 53 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+28%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	8c	3,987$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	12c	3,798$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$438.81	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	12c	3,708$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.76	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	12c	3,630$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.99	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	21c	3,590$767 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$766.53	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c06…59a3backed Yes	1c	3,482$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa701…86a3backed Yes	12c	3,304$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	3,298$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.18	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x736e…ae9cbacked Yes	23c	3,110$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-61%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,019$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.77	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	1c	3,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	13c	2,742$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.74	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	6c	2,707$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.22	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e0…4e4fbacked Yes	1c	2,668$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf360…6726backed No	79c	2,600$2,043 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$556.7	108	24.1%26 W · 82 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	4c	2,577$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.39	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes	12c	2,528$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.44	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	24c	2,506$597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$597.15	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	11c	2,436$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.6	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	2,401$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	5c	2,387$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.94	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ff…9708backed Yes	0c	2,328$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.51	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	6c	2,318$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.92	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	13c	2,299$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.9	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cca…f402backed Yes	13c	2,268$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	14c	2,245$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	24c	2,238$537 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$536.77	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	15c	2,233$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.94	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc1…0c67backed Yes	1c	2,223$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	4c	2,152$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.8	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4dd5…d861backed Yes	17c	2,111$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366	35	20%7 W · 28 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b6…9ff5backed Yes	12c	2,092$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.87	84	20.2%17 W · 67 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	18c	2,027$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.9	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	1c	2,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	1c	2,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.2	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	6c	2,000$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	1,978$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.16	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	8c	1,932$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.52	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	6c	1,919$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.58	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	10c	1,910$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.95	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	9c	1,889$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.7	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	3c	1,800$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.94	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a34…6c6cbacked Yes	6c	1,783$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1c4…8a7bbacked Yes	2c	1,778$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	14c	1,721$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.09	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	1,716$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.44	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	4c	1,711$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	5c	1,683$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.74	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	1,627$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.44	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27e4…ff39backed Yes	9c	1,605$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	1,550$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x201a…3418backed Yes	16c	1,549$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.94	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a18…2d35backed Yes	1c	1,501$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.12per pick	10cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01f4…443cbacked Yes	18c	1,500$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.73	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event