Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17ae193a728d2e1dba770f1f72c9f8e2c907407984506b5d7d5ab279f6ac2b0f

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $503,297
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $170,374

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $503,297 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	27,372$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.37	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	23,244$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.31	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07a4…b920backed Yes	0c	20,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-54%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	11c	13,107$1,484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,483.6	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	1c	11,900$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	9,915$916 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$916.49	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	7,131$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.03	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	7c	6,984$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488.87	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	6,673$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.16	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0828…746fbacked Yes	4c	6,001$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	5,934$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.31	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	5,649$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.4	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	4c	5,128$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.26	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x052d…f67dbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f7f…f85fbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x901a…dc86backed Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	4,930$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.7	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,677$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.92	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	4,197$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.73	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	0c	4,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8d58backed Yes	8c	3,966$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.76	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	12c	3,418$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.6	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	3,224$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.37	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	3c	2,638$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.18	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	2,535$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	8c	2,509$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.72	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes	1c	2,296$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.36	134	8.2%11 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	2,000$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.73	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	1,760$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.49	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	1c	1,700$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.25	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	4c	1,694$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.53	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	11c	1,656$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.16	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	1,613$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.87	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f72…664abacked Yes	7c	1,537$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+2.6wins	+0.15per pick	26cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	1c	1,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes	1c	1,494$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	131	16.8%22 W · 109 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	1,458$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.67	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	3c	1,450$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.13	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	1,404$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.33	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes	1c	1,370$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafe5…f7aebacked Yes	9c	1,268$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	1c	1,116$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.63	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbc0…a438backed Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	3c	1,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	4c	1,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742e…d945backed Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.21	62	21%13 W · 49 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77ca…2f7fbacked Yes	9c	999.98$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes	12c	999.69$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.96	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	8c	980.14$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.59	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	2c	894.25$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.01	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	880$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.4	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	10c	830.18$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.13	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27db…288dbacked Yes	9c	827.73$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.22	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7022…cfbdbacked Yes	10c	824.67$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.17per pick	19cpaid	+42.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	813.39$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.63	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	1c	808.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes	6c	755.96$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.36	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	16cpaid	-93.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	704.03$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.52	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	10c	655.32$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.98	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	2c	631.51$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes	5c	600$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	190	20.5%39 W · 151 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17b0…af8fbacked Yes	3c	569.85$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.08	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	15cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c6…ed71backed Yes	11c	513.84$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	6c	512.61$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.95	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd48…03c6backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-85.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	2c	500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	10c	480$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfac2…6d07backed Yes	9c	471.28$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.79	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	11c	449.99$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc24…a62fbacked Yes	12c	416.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	11c	407.7$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.12	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c54…1d08backed Yes	8c	400$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa641…52e3backed Yes	12c	394.43$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d99…854fbacked Yes	9c	382$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.64	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc699…4fb8backed Yes	4c	376.36$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.61	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	12c	366.67$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5853…144dbacked Yes	6c	333.33$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	42	19%8 W · 34 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0af9…19f4backed Yes	11c	325.57$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.25	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41bd…1196backed Yes	4c	323.37$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	7c	321.67$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	5c	278$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.06	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	7c	261.74$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f0…3a97backed Yes	12c	250$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe40c…19fdbacked Yes	9c	228.22$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.54	50	24%12 W · 38 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6475…5f32backed Yes	11c	227.27$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	59	11.9%7 W · 52 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd28b…fdf5backed Yes	12c	208.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.97	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	85	5.9%5 W · 80 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca5…6aecbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x868a…61a6backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	11c	199.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0617…3070backed Yes	6c	199.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	152	12.5%19 W · 133 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c45…a006backed Yes	7c	180$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes	9c	170$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event