TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$355,822
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,020

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $355,822 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xad1d…47c3backed Yes0c70,160$100 inLost-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c21,656$22 inLost-$21.661772.3%4 W · 173 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+467.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe97f…413abacked Yes0c20,833$40 inLost-$4060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95cd…4f91backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x642d…3de0backed Yes0c16,474$16 inLost-$16.471030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd560…1200backed Yes0c13,920$42 inLost-$41.761421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+71.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes1c11,544$84 inLost-$83.632317.4%17 W · 214 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes0c4,000$12 inLost-$1238010%38 W · 342 L+0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9447…91f2backed Yes0c3,886$10 inLost-$10270%0 W · 27 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.