Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dce9a725d8875faf4e603826e41336d215ea59561a6a602c30decf7d225048e

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $532,993
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $208,192

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $532,993 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	45,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	43,604$2,580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,579.8	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	17,862$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.75	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07a4…b920backed Yes	0c	15,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-54%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	12c	13,107$1,632 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,632.43	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	9,792$576 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576.45	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	14c	7,244$1,037 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,037.4	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	8c	6,985$559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.79	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	14c	6,302$883 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$882.73	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	6,029$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.96	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0828…746fbacked Yes	8c	6,006$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$492.2	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	3c	4,828$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.27	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	4,434$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.33	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	4,197$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.27	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	9c	4,017$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.22	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	13c	4,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	3,050$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	13c	3,000$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.99	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	2,995$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.05	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	9c	2,900$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	1c	2,736$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.85	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,615$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.06	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	13c	2,460$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.86	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8d58backed Yes	15c	2,370$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.1	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	1c	2,233$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.51	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	5c	2,207$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.97	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	5c	2,119$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.87	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a34…6c6cbacked Yes	15c	2,007$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bfb…7632backed Yes	12c	1,697$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-35%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	15c	1,618$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	1,500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	1c	1,500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	7c	1,430$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.1	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	6c	1,406$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.5	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66d0…c8f3backed Yes	8c	1,309$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.99	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-80.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	6c	1,309$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.55	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2959…bdf1backed Yes	14c	1,293$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	9c	1,286$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.25	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ab4…bcfbbacked Yes	3c	1,260$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.28	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.16per pick	32cpaid	-78%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes	14c	1,200$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d99…854fbacked Yes	13c	1,144$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.68	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes	2c	1,045$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	131	16.8%22 W · 109 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	1,036$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.94	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	1,012$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.62	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77ca…2f7fbacked Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd48…03c6backed Yes	14c	1,000$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-85.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	8c	999.99$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	13c	995$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.35	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	6c	949.8$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.27	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	945.55$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.67	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x742e…d945backed Yes	3c	930.65$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.14	62	21%13 W · 49 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7022…cfbdbacked Yes	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.17per pick	19cpaid	+42.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x31c4…622fbacked Yes	2c	833.16$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	18cpaid	+46.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	1c	811.67$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf70f…1b9abacked Yes	6c	800$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	152	46.7%71 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	2c	780.49$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.85	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	9c	772.98$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.48	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	5c	700$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.95	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x901a…dc86backed Yes	15c	700$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd2…a384backed Yes	11c	697.14$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.45	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c4a…d721backed Yes	15c	675.84$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes	15c	666.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	5c	610$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.29	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes	5c	599.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	190	20.5%39 W · 151 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8405…cba8backed Yes	13c	599.92$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.99	53	32.1%17 W · 36 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb19a…e593backed Yes	2c	598.75$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	14c	580$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.2	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc9e…6693backed Yes	10c	554.73$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.04	66	31.8%21 W · 45 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bb3…52cdbacked Yes	15c	533.33$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	19cpaid	+75.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c6…ed71backed Yes	16c	512.5$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14d…2563backed Yes	10c	492.87$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	145	15.9%23 W · 122 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdb…1352backed Yes	15c	464.59$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.36	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes	15c	462.44$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.15	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd41b…8649backed Yes	11c	455$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes	2c	451.02$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.55	118	9.3%11 W · 107 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	12c	416.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	11c	410$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	9c	400.16$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.01	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.38	400	16.8%67 W · 333 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	3c	399.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	13c	399.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfab1…4e6cbacked Yes	13c	399.99$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc24…a62fbacked Yes	13c	384.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe86d…ada3backed Yes	3c	369.36$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd72f…2806backed Yes	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	+174.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes	12c	332.23$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.87	101	14.9%15 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c2…6e6dbacked Yes	12c	322.07$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6745…3e52backed Yes	16c	318.76$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa07a…78eabacked Yes	13c	308.46$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.1	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-51%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f0…3a97backed Yes	13c	307.69$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3dea…26d5backed Yes	13c	300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ef…12ffbacked Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	61	45.9%28 W · 33 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	9c	299.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.7	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa741…bd1fbacked Yes	13c	299.99$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fab…a52fbacked Yes	6c	270.69$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.35	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d68…1474backed Yes	13c	253.85$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	75	25.3%19 W · 56 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event