TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,232,386
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$741,098

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,232,386 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc565…17aabacked Yes0c45,538$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes0c39,997$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.99595.1%3 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-61.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0594…e07cbacked Yes0c38,020$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes0c21,540$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.995535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c19,732$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.671,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes1c18,831$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23513817.4%24 W · 114 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc6…43c4backed Yes0c17,995$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.99120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee4…9d92backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15424.8%2 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-50.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9f…19b7backed Yes1c14,839$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202227.3%6 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid-12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes6c14,788$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.5821213.2%28 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes2c13,824$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.691,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a27…93e8backed Yes0c13,355$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.133016.7%5 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f57…a8aabacked Yes0c13,281$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c12,628$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.631290.8%1 W · 128 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+675.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes0c12,380$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.38470%0 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8303…d68bbacked Yes0c11,155$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.26120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c1…4628backed Yes1c10,787$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5460%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c10,103$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.491,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes1c9,522$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.48875.7%5 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes1c9,032$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6638010%38 W · 342 L+0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes0c8,865$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6510512.4%13 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes1c8,451$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5568615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c7,999$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.291,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67c4…4622backed Yes0c7,731$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes0c7,326$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.75628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa824…662fbacked Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb84…5f2abacked Yes0c6,552$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick1cpaid+4,116.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes0c6,322$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes1c6,320$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6826211.1%29 W · 233 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58a2…200bbacked Yes0c6,310$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes3c6,002$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.9650913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf45…24e5backed Yes0c5,508$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09dc…e583backed Yes2c5,369$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes1c5,251$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.317304.5%33 W · 697 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe97f…413abacked Yes0c5,156$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101457.6%11 W · 134 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1db5…79f1backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1de3…42f7backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes0c4,718$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.555045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x108d…e90ebacked Yes0c4,659$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes4c4,655$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.6660127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes4c4,362$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.2956429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes0c4,277$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.211027.8%8 W · 94 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f75…8775backed Yes1c3,870$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b2f…05efbacked Yes0c3,609$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9447…91f2backed Yes1c3,529$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20270%0 W · 27 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes1c3,473$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.566613.6%9 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c3,432$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.683281.2%4 W · 324 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c3,338$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.976915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes6c3,327$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.122,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2094…16d0backed Yes1c3,267$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes1c3,238$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2576821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf604…97a6backed Yes1c3,148$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+229.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf607…7ca0backed Yes0c3,128$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-77%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbeb3…8c5ebacked Yes0c2,982$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c2…6b54backed Yes1c2,961$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick14cpaid-55.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c2,663$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.574916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb1…b2b3backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10512%1 W · 50 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+107.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb5…36ebbacked Yes1c2,289$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c34…8f4abacked Yes3c2,206$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c2,097$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.213986.8%27 W · 371 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f8d…da09backed Yes0c2,018$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4806…d870backed Yes1c1,922$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.982924.1%7 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+52.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes1c1,921$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9138828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes1c1,752$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105313.2%7 W · 46 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes2c1,678$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3023017%39 W · 191 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes3c1,594$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.953267.1%23 W · 303 L-0.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes2c1,464$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0821818.3%40 W · 178 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes3c1,080$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9412216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc44a…8da6backed Yes3c1,033$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes6c1,000$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56797.6%6 W · 73 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b7a…4aa5backed Yes2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15766.6%5 W · 71 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b86…cc44backed Yes1c917.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick3cpaid+428.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bf2…15aebacked Yes2c866.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2170%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes5c789.12$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3736018.9%68 W · 292 L-1.3wins0.00per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes3c745.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024114.1%34 W · 207 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes2c714.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.13378.1%3 W · 34 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa932…79a6backed Yes2c699.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5712.8%2 W · 69 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-47.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe380…70e2backed Yes3c639.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.16618.2%5 W · 56 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-81.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes2c611.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5726411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes4c520$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1630317.2%52 W · 251 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa932…c76ebacked Yes3c441.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1313417.9%24 W · 110 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe86d…ada3backed Yes6c397.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.171915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f73…dbfbbacked Yes5c378.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc305…d01dbacked Yes3c362.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d4…0e8bbacked Yes6c330.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.825413%7 W · 47 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+93.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d56…62d2backed Yes6c277.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.372729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe77…1449backed Yes6c261.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-42.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a96…3eccbacked Yes6c200.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.221323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.