Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2993560bd6596d059fdc63d2cd454283ee6bd3556346db6c421c4ef0d953cde2

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $869,496
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $464,990

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $869,496 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 355 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	42,627$2,469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,469.33	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7be4…c73cbacked Yes	0c	33,088$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.61	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+14%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	25,630$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.29	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	24,297$2,104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,104.28	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	23,865$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.87	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c6…7c2dbacked Yes	2c	20,528$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	19,362$818 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$818	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	18,326$1,267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,267.12	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	6c	17,940$1,042 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,041.98	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	17,500$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	2c	13,448$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.16	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	8c	13,423$1,135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,135.15	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	11c	13,388$1,479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,478.99	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	19c	10,000$1,950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,949.99	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	8,871$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.19	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	7c	8,378$622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$622.49	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	8c	7,617$591 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$591.25	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	7,599$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	13c	7,570$993 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$993.11	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	7c	6,958$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.52	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	4c	5,745$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	14c	5,320$748 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$747.97	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	11c	5,182$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	3c	4,924$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.73	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	11c	4,769$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.3	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	7c	4,631$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.33	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14d…2563backed Yes	3c	4,579$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	145	15.9%23 W · 122 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	4c	4,500$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.25	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1a…86febacked Yes	7c	4,061$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.06	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01f4…443cbacked Yes	14c	4,000$566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.15	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	3c	3,834$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	24c	3,634$862 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$861.86	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	3c	3,500$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea85…efe5backed Yes	3c	3,368$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.81	62	14.5%9 W · 53 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+28%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	3,250$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.55	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c1…1215backed Yes	13c	3,033$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	46	21.7%10 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.52	40	0%0 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa316…780cbacked Yes	2c	3,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	16c	2,667$438 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$438.28	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes	15c	2,601$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	8c	2,581$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.76	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	13c	2,534$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.77	532	22.7%121 W · 411 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	21c	2,502$532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$532.01	413	10.7%44 W · 369 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,446$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.49	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	1c	2,430$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	12c	2,390$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.83	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes	11c	2,390$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.17	101	14.9%15 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	7c	2,270$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.08	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	20c	2,250$446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.52	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	9c	2,233$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.37	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2959…bdf1backed Yes	14c	2,210$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	12c	2,192$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	21c	2,189$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	2,140$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.45	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	9c	2,135$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.85	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	8c	2,131$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.9	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cca…f402backed Yes	26c	2,114$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	8c	2,028$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.21	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	3c	2,013$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.49	552	5.6%31 W · 521 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	15c	2,005$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.55	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	2,000$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.01	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	16c	1,927$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.69	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	9c	1,913$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.38	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	10c	1,903$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.06	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	14c	1,746$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.25	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	4c	1,607$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.08	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	12c	1,593$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.85	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5464…9d3ebacked Yes	26c	1,550$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	12c	1,540$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.8	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	10c	1,535$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.89	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	6c	1,528$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.05	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d99…854fbacked Yes	12c	1,502$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.51	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	12c	1,500$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes	14c	1,479$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.68	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	6c	1,470$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.29	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	4c	1,466$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.5	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	13c	1,458$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.7	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	13c	1,433$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.99	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	7c	1,289$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.23	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	7c	1,269$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.85	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	16c	1,241$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.61	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7587…81e2backed Yes	8c	1,208$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	18c	1,195$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.25	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	7c	1,150$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.25	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	15c	1,111$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes	11c	1,100$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+85.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	7c	1,100$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc73…d73abacked Yes	23c	1,095$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.78	51	29.4%15 W · 36 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	16c	1,092$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.8	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes	14c	1,043$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	85	27.1%23 W · 62 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	8c	1,030$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.85	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	7c	1,028$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.47	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	3c	1,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.49	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	16c	1,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44d…79aabacked Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes	10c	999.65$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.47	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	979.98$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.32	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	12c	917.24$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.07	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	8c	875$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event