Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb49175d2387fd7b6415b5570567685e687e5601acb82bf245102dbd877f45865
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $975,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $593,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $975,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09dc…e583backed Yes | 0c | 40,630$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…170cbacked Yes | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 0c | 30,965$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c1…85f3backed Yes | 0c | 20,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,060$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 129 | 0.8%1 W · 128 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +675.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Yes | 0c | 14,259$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 54 | 0%0 W · 54 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 1c | 14,256$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 138 | 17.4%24 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 47 | 0%0 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…9d92backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc6…43c4backed Yes | 0c | 12,084$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 0c | 11,730$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 552 | 5.6%31 W · 521 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 11,488$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8303…d68bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,850$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076b…9eaebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33fd…bc3abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d8…6f76backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b68…a125backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 3c | 9,815$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.2 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x294a…bbbabacked Yes | 0c | 7,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +210.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 6,946$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 1c | 6,706$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9447…91f2backed Yes | 0c | 6,135$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 0c | 6,133$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 345 | 15.9%55 W · 290 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…97a6backed Yes | 0c | 5,086$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +229.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd69…ff62backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd12d…4e1ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1169…d622backed Yes | 4c | 4,080$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.36 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,985$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 0c | 3,886$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -77%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c2…6b54backed Yes | 1c | 3,882$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,876$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c34…8f4abacked Yes | 2c | 3,676$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,671$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 599 | 27%162 W · 437 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 3,615$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 328 | 1.2%4 W · 324 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 0c | 3,436$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,256$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 105 | 12.4%13 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b7…7e08backed Yes | 0c | 2,756$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 1c | 2,674$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,534$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,382$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 1c | 2,242$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 2,090$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,902$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…99e6backed Yes | 2c | 1,641$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ad…32e4backed Yes | 1c | 1,637$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 132 | 29.5%39 W · 93 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b86…cc44backed Yes | 1c | 1,590$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 3cpaid | +428.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…0196backed Yes | 1c | 1,362$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 1,024$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142e…f6e4backed Yes | 3c | 951.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 2c | 847.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 2c | 837$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…a87cbacked Yes | 1c | 799.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.