Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3ad44e703969173f6fda7aeeae42c778a87be91abf72d0f108fe4f6f00e8e02

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $751,015
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $457,242

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $751,015 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0828…746fbacked Yes	6c	55,589$3,491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,491.34	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	44,979$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.98	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	5c	15,994$820 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$820.38	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	14,771$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	13,935$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.17	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	10c	13,522$1,294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,294.05	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	13c	13,107$1,667 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,667.26	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	11,512$653 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$652.62	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed Yes	2c	9,520$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.9	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	9,465$677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$677.1	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	9,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e2a…534ebacked Yes	22c	8,837$1,934 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,933.54	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	2c	8,647$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.73	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	7c	7,312$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$507.39	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	13c	6,995$928 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$927.75	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	9c	5,141$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$463.73	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	12c	5,109$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f72…664abacked Yes	13c	5,108$669 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$669	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+2.6wins	+0.15per pick	26cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	2c	5,088$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.42	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	14c	5,016$685 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$684.84	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	4,666$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.97	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	4,474$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.04	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	4,471$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	4,400$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	12c	4,000$486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486.14	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	12c	3,949$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.13	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	9c	3,936$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.05	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes	19c	3,711$702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$701.89	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	1c	3,500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	9c	2,768$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.08	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	14c	2,509$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.9	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07a4…b920backed Yes	2c	2,400$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.8	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-54%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	7c	2,305$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.2	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	2c	2,285$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.6	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2959…bdf1backed Yes	14c	2,271$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.6	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	3c	2,233$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.64	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	13c	2,120$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.34	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes	5c	2,108$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.57	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes	8c	2,014$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.86	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	7cpaid	+114.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	15c	2,000$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	1,902$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.54	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	1,893$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.7	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	18c	1,875$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.19	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	9c	1,861$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.99	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes	24c	1,647$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.3	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+126.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes	20c	1,579$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.99	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf22f…7714backed Yes	13c	1,514$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+79.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	5c	1,500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	1,500$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	14c	1,469$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.11	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f0…529ebacked Yes	22c	1,422$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.77	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	10c	1,406$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.74	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8f…3186backed Yes	15c	1,400$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	19cpaid	-78.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb29…ea70backed Yes	1c	1,362$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.97	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed Yes	16c	1,354$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.58	52	28.8%15 W · 37 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8423…b9c1backed Yes	11c	1,303$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	1,274$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.38	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	20c	1,269$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.64	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d99…854fbacked Yes	14c	1,200$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce2e…c77bbacked Yes	14c	1,200$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.5	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes	15c	1,196$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.46	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3dea…26d5backed Yes	21c	1,195$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.34	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31c4…622fbacked Yes	2c	1,193$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.97	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	18cpaid	+46.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe86d…ada3backed Yes	12c	1,079$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.41	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77ca…2f7fbacked Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01f4…443cbacked Yes	19c	1,000$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.16	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa316…780cbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8d58backed Yes	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd48…03c6backed Yes	18c	1,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	18cpaid	-85.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes	16c	999.97$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa741…bd1fbacked Yes	20c	990.84$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.44	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	11c	980$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.7	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	7c	965$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.41	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfab1…4e6cbacked Yes	20c	949.98$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	22c	934.77$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c1…1215backed Yes	22c	910.73$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	46	21.7%10 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e8f…e1ebbacked Yes	9c	903.04$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.27	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.18per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	17c	902.9$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18b2…24efbacked Yes	23c	833.43$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.69	156	19.2%30 W · 126 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x624e…a482backed Yes	22c	832.99$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.03	49	28.6%14 W · 35 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x742e…d945backed Yes	10c	803.32$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.03	62	21%13 W · 49 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	11c	800$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	8c	800$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.2	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb914…d12ebacked Yes	14c	790.91$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.53	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	787.5$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.07	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	23c	753.54$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.31	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	11c	699.99$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.3	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x10e3…5c79backed Yes	13c	695.49$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.41	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad58…3a01backed Yes	3c	694.98$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.75	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cd2…a384backed Yes	18c	674$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.98	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c4a…d721backed Yes	15c	666.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ab4…bcfbbacked Yes	10c	659.33$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.1	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.9wins	-0.16per pick	32cpaid	-78%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked No	76c	657.58$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.82	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc53…7623backed Yes	3c	637.27$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.97	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14d…2563backed Yes	12c	625$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	145	15.9%23 W · 122 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f14…905dbacked Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	49	24.5%12 W · 37 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+64%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2664…53f8backed Yes	17c	616.6$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.15	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	+35%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	13c	615.38$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	3c	605.92$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.97	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event