Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x092cee72fd23cd866d1050cf2ee296d61a3352c4f2957af76007c3dcc721ad61

Rebuilt 25 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $216,683
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $84,846

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,683 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	2c	7,628$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.32	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	0c	6,182$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.36	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	4,025$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.99	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	3,282$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.63	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	1c	3,120$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.44	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	1c	3,100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.9	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,176$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9447…91f2backed Yes	1c	1,772$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	1c	1,661$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,505$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	1c	1,250$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	1,089$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.63	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event