Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc0c2be2a0b23f24cb2a9ad3e19d1d35297ec1455c03e88844b3e39a0a3b7acc

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,557,874
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,407,004

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,557,874 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 876 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	23c	43,157$9,757 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33,400.09	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	18c	33,477$6,133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27,343.97	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	12c	26,495$3,140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23,354.92	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	26,186$2,439 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23,746.33	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	25c	18,044$4,483 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,560.43	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	26c	17,301$4,519 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,781.97	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	7c	16,287$1,148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,138.91	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes	54c	14,573$7,860 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,712.56	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	23c	13,594$3,125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,468.9	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	62c	13,448$8,376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,071.79	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	79c	12,967$10,306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,306.38	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	7c	12,430$929 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,500.36	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c1…1215backed Yes	34c	11,299$3,850 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,449.54	46	21.7%10 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea68…9d27backed No	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	46c	11,000$5,040 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,959.74	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked No	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xedd2…a09cbacked Yes	2c	9,465$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,317.12	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	5cpaid	+700.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	75c	8,875$6,694 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,181.03	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	14c	8,208$1,176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,031.65	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No	70c	7,994$5,592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,592.49	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	7,471$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,285.6	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	31c	7,460$2,277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,276.56	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	60c	7,392$4,446 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,945.96	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	14c	7,129$979 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,149.93	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	12c	6,964$812 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,151.71	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	3c	6,752$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,554.31	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	40c	6,723$2,703 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,019.75	563	29.8%168 W · 395 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed Yes	77c	6,535$5,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,535	52	28.8%15 W · 37 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	44c	6,475$2,818 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,656.62	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	66c	6,000$3,987 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,013.25	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	27c	5,835$1,565 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,269.6	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0431…fcb4backed No	0c	5,746$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.09	25	0%0 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	51c	5,708$2,916 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,792.4	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	25c	5,302$1,310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,992.05	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes	26c	5,023$1,312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,710.39	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	40c	4,541$1,803 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,737.53	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed No	56c	4,458$2,481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,480.54	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb3…f8d6backed No	67c	4,267$2,852 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,851.78	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	32c	4,187$1,350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,837.11	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x074b…ffc9backed No	65c	4,150$2,691 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,690.77	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	24c	4,100$980 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,119.75	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed No	78c	4,058$3,163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,162.98	97	28.9%28 W · 69 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb614…2a44backed Yes	37c	3,995$1,497 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,498.21	113	39.8%45 W · 68 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	52c	3,735$1,936 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,798.53	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	49c	3,652$1,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,852.23	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	17c	3,581$593 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,987.85	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	18c	3,533$639 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,893.71	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No	15c	3,486$511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.03	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd536…6659backed Yes	58c	3,464$2,027 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,437.92	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	2c	3,330$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,264.11	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	42c	3,313$1,402 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,911.57	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked No	1c	3,300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	124	24.2%30 W · 94 L	+11.3wins	+0.09per pick	15cpaid	+100.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	33c	3,291$1,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,211.39	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes	31c	3,261$995 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,266.57	149	28.2%42 W · 107 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	3,227$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,143.2	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	2c	3,215$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,164.98	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	63c	3,160$1,983 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,176.64	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed No	79c	3,084$2,425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,424.9	64	57.8%37 W · 27 L	+6.7wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed No	4c	3,027$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.25	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes	71c	2,971$2,119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$852.48	190	20.5%39 W · 151 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x172b…e2cdbacked Yes	43c	2,967$1,277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,689.87	82	36.6%30 W · 52 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb9…6f7abacked No	68c	2,961$2,002 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,001.71	56	53.6%30 W · 26 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	62cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	18c	2,854$524 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,329.96	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No	27c	2,815$766 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$766.49	55	38.2%21 W · 34 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…d100backed Yes	57c	2,707$1,537 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,170.91	28	50%14 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes	48c	2,700$1,307 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,392.77	53	17%9 W · 44 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x794e…5358backed Yes	55c	2,700$1,482 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,217.81	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa200…d145backed Yes	79c	2,687$2,130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$557.14	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	45c	2,649$1,187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,186.69	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf22f…7714backed Yes	2c	2,612$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,562.48	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+79.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	26c	2,610$673 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,936.71	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x117f…e958backed Yes	58c	2,529$1,476 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,053.01	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	12c	2,527$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,236.4	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes	52c	2,523$1,307 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,215.86	195	50.3%98 W · 97 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x969c…1039backed Yes	24c	2,465$588 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,876.37	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c4…8129backed No	70c	2,457$1,717 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,717.43	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-16.1wins	-0.17per pick	41cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	1c	2,450$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,426.21	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked No	59c	2,390$1,414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,413.7	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No	71c	2,347$1,670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,670.38	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	2,333$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,251.12	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x201a…3418backed Yes	8c	2,332$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,155.04	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed Yes	78c	2,305$1,796 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$508.61	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	2,301$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,225.79	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	20c	2,299$456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$455.67	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb84…5f2abacked Yes	1c	2,277$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,250.13	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	1cpaid	+4,116.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x330b…42debacked Yes	53c	2,277$1,209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,068.2	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	21c	2,272$485 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,786.82	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,225$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,199.7	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	21c	2,205$462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,743.3	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes	66c	2,178$1,443 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$735.26	212	33%70 W · 142 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	63c	2,174$1,364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,363.57	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd79a…9167backed Yes	47c	2,169$1,010 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,158.79	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	36c	2,133$768 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,365.42	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes	24c	2,080$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,579.86	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9f…19b7backed Yes	17c	2,075$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,724.92	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	-12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes	41c	2,043$834 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,208.98	210	34.8%73 W · 137 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c2…6b54backed Yes	39c	2,007$782 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,224.72	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	14cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	75c	1,954$1,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,470.07	186	76.9%143 W · 43 L	+11.9wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes	16c	1,925$304 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,620.95	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba66…79d8backed Yes	11c	1,902$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,689.74	115	19.1%22 W · 93 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+29.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event