TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6a96…3ecc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
60
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 54 out of 100; worst CS2 at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST1323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$36.04
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$30.43
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$44.56
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$18.09
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+335.7%+$46.33
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$28.92
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$45.77
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$16.2
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+199.9%+$61.32
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$11.22
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$20.52
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$52.04
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+374.3%+$126.77
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.9
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.84
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.68
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.2
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.38
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.22
US forces enter Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.2
Will Marco Rubio visit Israel by March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12.48
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+169.9%+$68.88
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+156.4%+$20.74
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+194.1%+$26.4
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+351.3%+$63.83
All 12 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST60%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
CS2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-70.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+77.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.44
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+203%+$40.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+96.1%+$10.78
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$11.34
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$55.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+222.6%+$86.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
T20 World Cup: England vs New Zealandbacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+163.2%+$22.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+122.2%+$18.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stagebacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+88.7%+$13.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.08
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.