TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$397,012
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$396,547

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $397,012 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 640 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x26fc…14efbacked Yes25c46,400$11,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,6611100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+295.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd81…fe97backed Yes30c27,500$8,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,222.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+232.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb95d…1815backed No75c23,300$17,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,428.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2720…2765backed No75c23,100$17,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,232.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0b7…c8e8backed No70c15,400$10,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,764.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x927c…f1bebacked No70c12,700$8,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,89010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40b3…a75cbacked Yes30c12,300$3,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,6101100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5311…cbd0backed Yes27c12,100$3,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,845.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+271.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf125…1bd6backed No73c12,095$8,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,829.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d7e…4e04backed No70c11,695$8,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,174.8120%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a03…6c01backed No70c8,700$6,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,09010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2837…f18abacked No70c6,700$4,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,69010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe021…10e8backed Yes34c4,158$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,754.49616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-50.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3630…3f8fbacked No14c2,091$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked No18c1,781$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes19c1,694$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.08616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes41c1,452$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.537945.6%36 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca87…3701backed Yes14c1,414$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.451662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+118.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa96c…d1c7backed Yes25c1,414$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+76.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed Yes19c1,316$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.451947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed No10c1,279$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0170%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes14c1,180$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.982540%10 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d4b…eedfbacked Yes26c1,170$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.632100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+170.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaa1…eb3abacked Yes26c1,092$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.9887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.39per pick49cpaid+112.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x23c1…704bbacked Yes26c1,091$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.161250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab78…fac0backed Yes19c1,015$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.71825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed Yes16c1,000$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8401580%12 W · 3 L+4.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+89.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No9c966.85$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.591822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-65%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x817c…c2c7backed Yes32c965.14$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.77333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x488b…219bbacked No76c949.51$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes14c921.36$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.63426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-8.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes14c907$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.31540%6 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc239…6459backed Yes30c901.96$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.64616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-45.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd888…0471backed Yes24c859.33$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.75616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked No69c859$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.852347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes2c806.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.762642.3%11 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.20per pick23cpaid+335.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa5d3…6b98backed Yes76c803.31$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…1598backed No65c782$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.522045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes43c774.94$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.91757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick34cpaid+65.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed No74c744$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.072948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x521c…38f9backed No8c738.07$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked No74c728$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.262948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc9e…2c0bbacked No7c715.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6897…63b6backed No74c711$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.72540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01fb…ad54backed Yes28c693.15$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.48616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No67c684.94$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.43721.6%8 W · 29 L-5.7wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-69.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xba10…cf10backed No61c660$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes41c647.32$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.872100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+146.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No24c632.49$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.628638.4%33 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd07…0058backed Yes14c610$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.771833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaf4…73afbacked Yes27c605$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+265%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes71c576.91$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.5818746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes35c572$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.231330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b4f…3b33backed Yes14c568.24$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.98560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+104.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e6b…2ffcbacked Yes44c560.63$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.69616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-62%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked No6c552$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7598…6d1cbacked No18c551.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1aa…298cbacked Yes54c541.48$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.72616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1560…1279backed Yes33c533.92$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.23425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ac…c00fbacked No75c530.49$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No40c523.88$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.753450%17 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+97.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x573c…9d85backed Yes8c522$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No3c500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.58225.6%21 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6388…f668backed Yes20c494$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.71757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+31.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes52c485.47$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.072619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-60%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7be4…8477backed Yes79c482.47$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.26728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-63.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes6c468.97$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.78425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+315.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No72c468.71$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.221656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf860…c045backed Yes33c468.68$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.68616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-49.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d62…df5cbacked Yes32c463.39$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.14520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdba6…fd3bbacked Yes30c463.15$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.29425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes34c456.21$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.3413534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff00…c146backed Yes6c451.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.86837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+164.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed No63c443$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.881850%9 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eaa…4456backed Yes31c434$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.03475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick33cpaid+156.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x611f…1f84backed Yes31c425$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.83944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes14c423$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.161414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-40.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No3c420.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.164843.8%21 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8ed…9594backed Yes34c405.54$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebc1…fe91backed Yes34c403$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.18425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9438…fc9bbacked No20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a3…b48cbacked Yes12c399.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.991717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2d7…deb5backed No49c379.53$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd183…ebffbacked Yes7c379$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,288.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaccf…b278backed Yes27c378.27$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.09333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x673d…e929backed Yes32c373$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.27450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+33.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes30c372.63$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.4983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99b5…8d41backed Yes32c369.5$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.83333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7609…6c4ebacked Yes34c361.36$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+49.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05f2…95debacked Yes15c359$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.79633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+114.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Yes15c359$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.152951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c358.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.21,3938%111 W · 1,282 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf92a…9134backed Yes15c358$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.941471.4%10 W · 4 L+4.6wins+0.33per pick38cpaid+133.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x32c5…31ddbacked No9c342.2$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b9…2592backed No20c335.89$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.31425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-54.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e18…dd00backed No75c333.16$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes44c329.14$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.35251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6576…f0abbacked No80c326$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.471338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-43.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cc5…b8afbacked No72c323.7$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.