Movies · resolved market
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2499928ffbe6022444543dcd940075259cecb5e41e346284b578cb64e1404d32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 4c | 6,219$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.52 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe021…10e8backed Yes | 10c | 4,040$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc6…7ce4backed Yes | 3c | 2,749$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd888…0471backed Yes | 5c | 2,525$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…cc69backed Yes | 1c | 2,023$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed Yes | 3c | 1,649$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa6…f6f0backed Yes | 7c | 1,531$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 7c | 1,455$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 12c | 1,305$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…a0d7backed Yes | 3c | 1,188$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed Yes | 10c | 1,104$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 6c | 937.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes | 4c | 918.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf860…c045backed Yes | 7c | 718.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 3c | 703.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be4…8477backed Yes | 2c | 689.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…9f2abacked Yes | 3c | 658.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…5487backed Yes | 3c | 606.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 599.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d62…df5cbacked Yes | 9c | 586.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2d…6040backed Yes | 5c | 586.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47de…61f9backed Yes | 7c | 522.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6f…469fbacked Yes | 15c | 516$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1938…ba1fbacked Yes | 7c | 492.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 3c | 485.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes | 15c | 485$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca3…7bb5backed Yes | 13c | 473.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ed…5f7ebacked Yes | 5c | 449.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 5c | 446.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 4c | 436.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1aa…298cbacked Yes | 8c | 425.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -69%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Yes | 6c | 411.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f0…3196backed Yes | 6c | 405.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6b…2ffcbacked Yes | 7c | 404.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -62%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x060d…8932backed Yes | 5c | 392.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…ad54backed Yes | 8c | 385.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 6c | 340.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe292…1709backed Yes | 10c | 339.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…21babacked Yes | 7c | 327.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37f0…aab9backed Yes | 13c | 323.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked Yes | 8c | 321.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…a8e0backed Yes | 5c | 304.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…5e27backed Yes | 7c | 285.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…1d29backed Yes | 6c | 261.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae21…3f5abacked Yes | 14c | 258.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeff…0390backed Yes | 8c | 249.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9b…c04fbacked Yes | 9c | 248.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 10c | 247.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe919…da2dbacked Yes | 5c | 246.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…ab98backed Yes | 8c | 231.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4c…afe5backed Yes | 7c | 219.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7c…94e2backed Yes | 5c | 219$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53dd…96e4backed Yes | 7c | 210.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1995…0de9backed Yes | 6c | 205.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…c558backed Yes | 7c | 191$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 178.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc02d…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 177.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed6a…019abacked Yes | 7c | 170$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…cc1cbacked Yes | 7c | 161.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cf…c998backed Yes | 10c | 158.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 16c | 149.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde6b…7178backed Yes | 12c | 142.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8a…9b58backed Yes | 11c | 142.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1e…f425backed Yes | 8c | 137.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…81bdbacked Yes | 9c | 137.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0c…206abacked Yes | 9c | 137.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…fd13backed Yes | 10c | 123.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba40…630ebacked Yes | 8c | 122.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc79…b55abacked Yes | 10c | 113.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc1…fe91backed Yes | 13c | 107$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…2501backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c49…8686backed Yes | 17c | 79.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce63…8ee6backed Yes | 40c | 26.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…6789backed No | 72c | 17.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?this page
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.