Movies · resolved market
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d495a3e05eaffe438bb1c2ab97ed57a79b0a6ab18a2ca6fa5b448e20ce70082
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 533 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,418$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe021…10e8backed Yes | 26c | 4,361$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd888…0471backed Yes | 9c | 3,131$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,840$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8e…3de0backed Yes | 75c | 2,200$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes | 7c | 1,748$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 12c | 1,464$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.24 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed Yes | 23c | 1,450$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,396$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be4…8477backed Yes | 7c | 1,297$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…1690backed Yes | 15c | 1,266$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 21c | 1,203$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.32 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…4569backed No | 61c | 1,156$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.68 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc6…7ce4backed Yes | 5c | 1,156$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked Yes | 39c | 1,118$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 8c | 1,099$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed No | 77c | 1,096$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.08 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 29c | 1,081$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.65 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed Yes | 29c | 1,051$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.53 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 45c | 964$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.8 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked No | 55c | 959$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.55 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 77c | 953$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.59 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 44c | 950$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…48d0backed Yes | 4c | 938.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked Yes | 39c | 938$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed No | 54c | 908$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.68 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 39c | 904$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.66 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…e76cbacked Yes | 2c | 891.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…fd3bbacked Yes | 15c | 883.88$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9d41backed No | 71c | 883$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.07 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked No | 61c | 865$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 69c | 862$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.22 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…36b2backed Yes | 39c | 856$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 19c | 847.49$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed Yes | 45c | 833$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.85 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed No | 61c | 829$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.48 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf860…c045backed Yes | 15c | 825$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed Yes | 39c | 811$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac2…99bfbacked Yes | 3c | 801.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…dbd4backed No | 69c | 752$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.12 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed Yes | 39c | 747$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.58 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked No | 70c | 707$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes | 10c | 683$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked No | 68c | 680$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked No | 61c | 669$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed No | 69c | 647$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.57 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5afdbacked No | 61c | 644$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.52 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed Yes | 16c | 638.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbe…04b4backed Yes | 39c | 633$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…ba85backed Yes | 30c | 631$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 18c | 629$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked Yes | 29c | 610$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…f582backed Yes | 13c | 609$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…59d6backed No | 61c | 601$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.79 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed No | 79c | 590$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.55 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 3c | 587.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 13c | 567$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked No | 58c | 554$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.57 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 13c | 553.86$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47de…61f9backed Yes | 12c | 526.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 37c | 520$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 61c | 517$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbc…d620backed Yes | 15c | 515$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed No | 61c | 513$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaccf…b278backed Yes | 17c | 492.39$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed Yes | 39c | 489$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.22 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed No | 61c | 489$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +142.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed Yes | 15c | 488$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed No | 55c | 487$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.15 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed Yes | 11c | 479$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +161.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…ad54backed Yes | 28c | 477.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed No | 70c | 473$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes | 32c | 468$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…81f6backed Yes | 39c | 467$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.66 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 5c | 460.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 18c | 455.23$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 68c | 448$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.73 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 13c | 433$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…26fdbacked Yes | 26c | 426$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6576…f0abbacked No | 74c | 426$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed Yes | 14c | 425$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 15c | 422$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed No | 55c | 420$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No | 61c | 414$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.05 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed Yes | 53c | 394$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.82 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed Yes | 46c | 390$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…d725backed Yes | 31c | 388$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed Yes | 6c | 383.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed No | 70c | 382$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x751d…86e8backed Yes | 8c | 379.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1aa…298cbacked Yes | 24c | 378.39$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -69%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 31c | 373$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.63 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 14c | 362.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 33c | 361.63$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99b5…8d41backed Yes | 14c | 361.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c7…be6fbacked No | 61c | 361$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked Yes | 14c | 361$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked Yes | 39c | 361$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…eae0backed Yes | 47c | 358$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.9 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?this page
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.