TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$181,925
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$140,520

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,925 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 533 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes3c4,418$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.86812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-65.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe021…10e8backed Yes26c4,361$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.35616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-50.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd888…0471backed Yes9c3,131$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.7616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes1c2,840$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea8e…3de0backed Yes75c2,200$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,64520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes7c1,748$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.38616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes12c1,464$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.247945.6%36 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5322…95e1backed Yes23c1,450$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick49cpaid-70.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes11c1,396$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9214628.1%41 W · 105 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7be4…8477backed Yes7c1,297$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.12728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-63.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf977…1690backed Yes15c1,266$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.17633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+77.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes21c1,203$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.324348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bb…4569backed No61c1,156$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.681361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cc6…7ce4backed Yes5c1,156$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3acc…973dbacked Yes39c1,118$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.9825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes8c1,099$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.922619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-60%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2e15…7ff5backed No77c1,096$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.082157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…f8a1backed Yes29c1,081$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.652540%10 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae0…4590backed Yes29c1,051$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.531850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes45c964$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.85046%23 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a5…c0edbacked No55c959$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.552450%12 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed No77c953$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.592955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed Yes44c950$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.152343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a61…48d0backed Yes4c938.97$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6177…c22abacked Yes39c938$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+194.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3506…4815backed No54c908$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.682152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04da…dc10backed Yes39c904$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.661723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-63.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc9a7…e76cbacked Yes2c891.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3870%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdba6…fd3bbacked Yes15c883.88$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.98425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed No71c883$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.071580%12 W · 3 L+4.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+89.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x805a…735dbacked No61c865$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed No69c862$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.223740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe584…36b2backed Yes39c856$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.72560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+77.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab78…fac0backed Yes19c847.49$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.97825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9720…f4d1backed Yes45c833$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.853243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ab…56e8backed No61c829$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.481540%6 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf860…c045backed Yes15c825$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.87616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-49.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e47…db27backed Yes39c811$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.62040%8 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-35.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac2…99bfbacked Yes3c801.9$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12e3…dbd4backed No69c752$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.12887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick62cpaid+29.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b47…8191backed Yes39c747$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.581513.3%2 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-68.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x33e2…e1babacked No70c707$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.11338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes10c683$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.031233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-20.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3087…f8fbbacked No68c680$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.28771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick39cpaid+153.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef29…f7eabacked No61c669$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.24757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…8085backed No69c647$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.572650%13 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd98f…5afdbacked No61c644$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.521855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc239…6459backed Yes16c638.61$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.74616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-45.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cbe…04b4backed Yes39c633$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.24540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+90.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13b6…ba85backed Yes30c631$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.31450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+48.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ece…35e8backed Yes18c629$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.71421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-57%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ec3…3adcbacked Yes29c610$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.91346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc112…f582backed Yes13c609$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0285…59d6backed No61c601$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.79683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed No79c590$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.553438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes3c587.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2510042%42 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes13c567$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.01933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked No58c554$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.572729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-50.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes13c553.86$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47de…61f9backed Yes12c526.53$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.34520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes37c520$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.42642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa347…2a40backed No61c517$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.111060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bbc…d620backed Yes15c515$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.77450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1b7…d913backed No61c513$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.56837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102540%10 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaccf…b278backed Yes17c492.39$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed Yes39c489$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.221637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb74c…9c72backed No61c489$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.22475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+142.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe07c…1307backed Yes15c488$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6960%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf40b…7181backed No55c487$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.153432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x06a0…cae1backed Yes11c479$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.171080%8 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+161.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x01fb…ad54backed Yes28c477.99$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.85616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7086…f376backed No70c473$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.9955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes32c468$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.231346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f33…81f6backed Yes39c467$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.661540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc004…c095backed Yes5c460.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0340%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes18c455.23$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2913534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5f…d395backed No68c448$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.731650%8 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes13c433$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.992948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8c…26fdbacked Yes26c426$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.761442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6576…f0abbacked No74c426$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.761338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-43.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d91…89d8backed Yes14c425$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.631330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-59%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcacf…115ebacked Yes15c422$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.72825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-38.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63c2…ca53backed No55c420$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1892142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No61c414$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.052050%10 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x090c…3c25backed Yes53c394$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.821844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d7…0217backed Yes46c390$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.41136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c12…d725backed Yes31c388$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.281225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x880d…adb6backed Yes6c383.62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ccb…6c69backed No70c382$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.6850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x751d…86e8backed Yes8c379.1$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1aa…298cbacked Yes24c378.39$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.34616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked Yes31c373$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.633141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes14c362.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0313333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes33c361.63$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.5214015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99b5…8d41backed Yes14c361.23$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.78333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5c7…be6fbacked No61c361$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.43450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b45…836ebacked Yes14c361$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.351822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-54.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14ba…e6cebacked Yes39c361$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4350%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x993c…eae0backed Yes47c358$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.91741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.