TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x02a5…c0ed

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
142
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst AI at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT3246.9%15 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.22
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$386Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+33%+$127.35
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$168.33
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.18
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$292.86
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$565Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$565.45
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.58
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$31.68
Will Cason Wallace lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.84
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.5
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+183%+$131.9
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$37.44
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+802.8%+$698.05
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.27
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.09
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.81
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.88
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$79.86
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+90%+$27.47
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.12
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$39.9
Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+25%+$18.4
Will the Dallas Mavericks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.84
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.37
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+47.1%+$50.56
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2450%12 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$527Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$431.55
No one announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+179.6%+$382.22
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$225.72
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.3
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.89
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$393Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$393.47
Will Cynthia Erivo be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+75.4%+$15.91
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+61.3%+$97.28
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$389Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+29.9%+$116.15
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$139.32
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+26.6%+$55.44
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$24.84
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+29.9%+$47.61
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$26.74
Will Chloé Zhao be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+26.6%+$62.58
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$23.31
Will The Pitt win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$232.18
Will One Battle After Another win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+78.6%+$113.08
Will "Sarah Silverman: Postmortem" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+33.3%+$31
Will Adam Scott (Severance) win Best Actor – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$69.08
Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$76.84
Will A Minecraft Movie be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+40.8%+$36.54
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$864Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+107.9%+$932.53
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$94.22
All 24 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT1421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-44.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.15
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$355Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$354.9
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.95
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.48
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.99
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$54.29
Will Ha Phan advance from the CA-17 primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.52
Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+244.8%+$259.15
Will John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$245.19
Will John Cornyn come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$12.24
Will Wesley Hunt come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$216.84
Will Mark Teixeira be the Republican nominee for TX-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$14.16
Will Supha Xayprasith-Mays win the 2026 Arkansas Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$35.88
Will Cornyn flip Paxton for Texas Rep Senate Primary Winner by Jan 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+75.4%+$44.29
All 14 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST1250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$623Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+38.3%+$238.39
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+31.6%+$33.84
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$368Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$367.85
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+112.8%+$126.67
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+100%+$109
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$23.4
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$66.15
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+323.8%+$603.57
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$472Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$471.91
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$504Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$168
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$57.75
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$10.2
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.31per pick49cpaid-68.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$162.43
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$619Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$619
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+100%+$149
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$636Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$636
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$173.29
Google Gemini Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$360.11
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$184.18
Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$108.89
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$55.1
Will Sam Altman say "Deep Fake" on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+44.9%+$17.98
Will the Israel–Iran conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$27.93
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+49.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$87.56
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$385.07
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$543Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$162.15
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$406Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$406.1
Will Israel strike 2 countries in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+92.3%+$136.32
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+127.3%+$195.44
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+74.9%+$9.85
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$60.8
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+132.6%+$87.78
All 9 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-47.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.22
Will ETHGAS launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$105.5
Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+72.4%+$64.68
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+75.4%+$113.95
Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$32.06
Over $14M committed to the Space public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$30.6
Over $20M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+25%+$65.4
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$21.76
Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$30.75
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-72.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+75.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$347.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$628.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Manchester United?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$417Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$205.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tyron Woodley win his boxing match against Anderson Silva?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+40.8%+$37.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 120-129 tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$64.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Indiana and Ole Miss win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$94.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$178.87
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.