Venezuela · resolved market
Will there be exactly two announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x668c65c2971211f292d133a0f547df0e191f9b92d123e31a761078ac37c36a18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 44c | 5,797$2,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,546.84 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 51c | 3,495$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.42 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 53c | 2,918$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.64 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 5c | 2,736$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.27 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 5c | 1,344$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 52c | 1,069$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.86 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…d837backed No | 78c | 841$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked Yes | 22c | 569$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa400…ec34backed Yes | 23c | 568$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed No | 78c | 437$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked Yes | 22c | 422$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Yes | 3c | 414.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…ae74backed Yes | 17c | 373.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes | 23c | 344$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 11c | 342.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.17 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 12cpaid | +977.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed No | 77c | 340$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…b9b4backed Yes | 23c | 340$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed No | 77c | 340$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d5f6backed No | 77c | 335$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked No | 77c | 314$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 299.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…7de5backed Yes | 22c | 266$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes | 23c | 240$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed No | 77c | 224$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 10c | 198.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 23c | 168$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed No | 77c | 167$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 12c | 160.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…7602backed No | 79c | 158$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8ad4backed Yes | 21c | 158$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 21c | 154$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked No | 79c | 154$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked Yes | 23c | 135$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b10…e48fbacked Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 53c | 119.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked No | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed No | 77c | 106$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 106$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…998dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 14c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +1,596.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 14c | 94.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 19c | 88.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 20c | 70.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 66.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…dc79backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed No | 78c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +226.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed No | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Yes | 40c | 30.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 50c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 74c | 29.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly two announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?this page
- Will there be exactly four announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?No won
- Will there be exactly one announced new U.S. armed forces strike against drug boats in 2025?No won
- Will there be exactly three announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?No won
- Will there be five or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?Yes won
- Will there be zero announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.