Venezuela · resolved market
Will there be exactly one announced new U.S. armed forces strike against drug boats in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a62056761736abc2caf73eeb34b9af8c5604c5bc243e78184804d240ea1eb66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 8c | 1,974$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.89 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 38c | 950.28$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.44 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +8.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 8c | 813.37$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.36 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 51c | 744$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.77 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed No | 75c | 627$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 22c | 449$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…ae74backed No | 62c | 419.57$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.73 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 25c | 411$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +129%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 5c | 400$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +200.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed No | 78c | 350$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked No | 34c | 298.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb7…1429backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed Yes | 22c | 292$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked No | 78c | 292$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 25c | 263$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +182.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked No | 75c | 263$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…d9c1backed No | 78c | 254$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 10c | 234.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.48 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 25c | 216$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed No | 17c | 200$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +275.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 72c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 69cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 37c | 179.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.67 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 26c | 159.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed Yes | 22c | 155$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…3256backed Yes | 78c | 151.11$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e4…b433backed Yes | 72c | 136.58$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 17c | 104.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 59c | 103.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 101.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…998dbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 77c | 99.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 39c | 92.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 15c | 90$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 29c | 88.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 43c | 84.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 37c | 77.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…fb8cbacked Yes | 37c | 76.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +107%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 43c | 72.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 28c | 70.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb268…9039backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 51c | 45.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 34.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 32.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 57c | 21.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 76c | 14.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly one announced new U.S. armed forces strike against drug boats in 2025?this page
- Will there be exactly four announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?No won
- Will there be exactly three announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?No won
- Will there be exactly two announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?No won
- Will there be five or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?Yes won
- Will there be zero announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.