Venezuela · resolved market
Will there be five or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6203e9b19573bb3269a045a345e0399616d5f5471e24055ea27a91f7caae3100
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 3,355$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,196.22 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 23c | 2,666$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 6c | 1,675$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.1 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 12c | 1,570$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.44 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,567$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.46 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 1c | 1,544$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +1,596.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 23c | 1,326$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 12cpaid | +977.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 77c | 1,000$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 6c | 799.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 23c | 710$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.75 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 5c | 280.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.28 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 22c | 229$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe194…cd47backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 3cpaid | +332%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b10…e48fbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 77c | 85.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +8.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 17c | 61.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be five or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?this page
- Will there be exactly four announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?No won
- Will there be exactly one announced new U.S. armed forces strike against drug boats in 2025?No won
- Will there be exactly three announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?No won
- Will there be exactly two announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?No won
- Will there be zero announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.