Venezuela · resolved market
Will there be zero announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6413d69eb12502f9926eca6405a45b669680cb0f16345a884da564a5645b0c50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 47c | 2,060$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.22 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 15c | 1,998$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 12cpaid | +977.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 1,332$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.83 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked No | 66c | 1,234$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.47 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 4c | 1,201$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed No | 48c | 1,093$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.64 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +8.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 30c | 645.24$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.93 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 70c | 500$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.01 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…744dbacked Yes | 39c | 480$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 60c | 275.51$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 28c | 234.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 40c | 222$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 30c | 220$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0e…2eefbacked Yes | 42c | 201.07$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 69c | 199.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 69cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 14c | 198.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 184.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 79c | 170$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde31…4f59backed No | 59c | 169.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 17c | 164.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 22cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed No | 70c | 157.01$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 20c | 150.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 126.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1880…eee6backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 36c | 105.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ce…31fcbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83f…4611backed No | 69c | 93.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 33c | 88.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d07…c976backed No | 50c | 84.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 41c | 83.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 26c | 77.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…95a7backed Yes | 45c | 73.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 34c | 72.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83cc…3bcdbacked Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 29c | 72.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 27c | 70.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 50c | 62.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 65c | 62.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 39c | 60.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bb…5048backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…dc79backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 47.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 75c | 45.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +38%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 75c | 31.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 41c | 26.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…c123backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b8…68c6backed No | 80c | 18.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be zero announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?this page
- Will there be exactly four announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?No won
- Will there be exactly one announced new U.S. armed forces strike against drug boats in 2025?No won
- Will there be exactly three announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?No won
- Will there be exactly two announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?No won
- Will there be five or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.