TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9dc5…d5f6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
108
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: NBA, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 54 out of 100; worst Weather at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.28
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.4
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$39.2
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$10.81
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.32
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$76.5
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$19.57
Will Marty Supreme win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.76
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$12.32
Will George Clooney be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+26.6%+$5.67
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10.17
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+37%+$48.06
Will Jafar Panahi be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$21.9
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$61.94
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+257.1%+$84.24
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+96.1%+$19.11
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+194.1%+$21.12
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+316.7%+$50.92
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+28.2%+$9.02
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$11.96
Will Ryan Coogler be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Chloé Zhao be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$578Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+25%+$144.6
Will Amy Madigan be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+92.3%+$79.2
Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$387.66
Will Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+64.5%+$29.01
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2065%13 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$124.95
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+56%+$45.23
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+348.4%+$119.66
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.28
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.39
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$59.16
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$8.58
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.51
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+48.1%+$8.77
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$49.92
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.2
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$118.25
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$321Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$321.36
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$12.4
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.16
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$47.04
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$36
Will Ja Morant be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+25%+$12
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+26.6%+$24.57
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$50.02
All 20 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.66
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+208.6%+$194.68
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+400%+$124.8
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$248.3
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$61.8
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$33.48
Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+108.3%+$86.32
Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+49.3%+$39.93
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+82.4%+$102.08
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+69.5%+$49.61
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$62.13
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$23.94
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$28.95
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+51.5%+$26.86
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.4
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.95
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$66.4
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+156.4%+$43.92
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+215.5%+$114.06
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$51.51
Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$7.83
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+28.2%+$34.98
Will Sam Altman say "Meme" on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+37%+$10.8
Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+29.2%+$41.31
All 10 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.96
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$100.13
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$81.75
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$79.12
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+30.3%+$14.88
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$21.42
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+85.2%+$12.88
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+49.3%+$97.35
All 8 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+121.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick68cpaid+48.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+75.4%+$15.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+33.3%+$16.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BYU make the College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$22.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$76.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$57.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba be the Top Fantasy Wide Receiver for the 2025–26 NFL Regular Season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$29.48
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.