TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in December 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$156,609
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$157,472

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,609 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa899…f68dbacked No9c8,617$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.348610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes56c4,439$2,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,964.932718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-60%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes48c3,777$1,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9716822.1%15 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes58c3,214$1,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.091625%4 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes77c3,027$2,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.212748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x44b8…6459backed No1c3,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3140%0 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No0c2,876$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.841,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c2,696$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.012,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes48c2,110$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.7570616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c1,753$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.191,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed No30c1,577$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.31389.4%13 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked No52c1,510$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.866097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad0c…df3cbacked Yes74c1,392$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.528034.3%96 W · 184 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes56c1,370$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.8714015.7%22 W · 118 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No40c1,326$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.1631565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe47c…642abacked No42c1,196$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.011723.5%4 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid+71%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2965…c74abacked No49c1,008$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2216…4accbacked Yes34c972$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.261346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+179%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes11c961.35$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.045198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No5c906.06$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.44345.1%22 W · 412 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked No3c900$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251824.9%9 W · 173 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked No17c874.44$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5660127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes37c874.17$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.433810.5%4 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-52.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No4c828.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.146915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No2c799.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.72794.7%13 W · 266 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf728…1632backed Yes69c762.83$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.273116.1%5 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x59c6…e6d4backed Yes62c755.51$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.93825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes26c714.66$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.8956.3%6 W · 89 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No3c702.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.212615.4%14 W · 247 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No31c693.03$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.9326167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes51c654.8$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.4118123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x925f…b89ebacked Yes27c643.8$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+272.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fa8…d618backed No9c629.4$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.961723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No19c607.47$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No61c602.92$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.552552%13 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+40.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes38c602.08$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.6482711%91 W · 736 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes57c588$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.965036%18 W · 32 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes52c525.84$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.434010%4 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-62.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc622…8f86backed Yes57c522.88$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.645024%12 W · 38 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes52c502.31$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.82676%4 W · 63 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4451…fcbebacked Yes20c500$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+190%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No69c498.8$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.96633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick71cpaid-52.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes5c490$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.827912.7%10 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Yes62c483.27$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.272100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x228a…2a55backed Yes73c482.32$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.161540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked No46c470.71$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.572445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+30.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53c6…b9a7backed Yes20c464.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.493622.2%8 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+26.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fae…5d6dbacked Yes46c430$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.731533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed Yes74c428.33$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.333063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf396…ea64backed Yes49c417.68$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes43c399.98$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.9926224%63 W · 199 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x651a…9f8fbacked Yes49c393.5$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.722010%2 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde56…4c7abacked No51c392.68$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc7c…d86fbacked No48c349.98$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.25966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x462a…d36dbacked Yes65c317.24$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.22933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+22.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa414…d03dbacked No29c313.42$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No45c304$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.141230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe583…2d98backed No65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.311421.1%24 W · 90 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes67c298$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.348915.7%14 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed No34c296.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004869.7%47 W · 439 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes49c293.08$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.02580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+43.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97f4…66e6backed No7c291.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.21862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x345c…cb97backed Yes59c276.02$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.4520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ed…9374backed Yes73c273.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.561421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-61.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x026b…f975backed Yes71c268.59$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd5…1370backed Yes12c249.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fed…85cdbacked Yes65c235.86$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.461030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes49c233.82$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.655718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f58…e29abacked Yes53c232$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes25c223.78$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.784798.6%41 W · 438 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd54…3ffebacked Yes50c220.9$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.9911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-77.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc8c…c6b1backed Yes42c220.73$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+88.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bc1…34d9backed No33c219.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5e3…b2dfbacked Yes78c210.29$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.29812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-83.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0982…92c6backed Yes22c205$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.9810914.7%16 W · 93 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-37.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafa9…99c1backed Yes71c203.52$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fb1…17d7backed Yes63c201.16$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.163818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x029b…5937backed Yes47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.05944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1064413.6%6 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2011…f296backed Yes5c199.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.391020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+101.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f63…3793backed Yes70c198.88$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.881816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-68.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes31c198.49$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.952213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-54.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9786…b15cbacked Yes5c197.35$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.354027.5%11 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-0.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0551…b427backed Yes64c187.33$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.333545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5f7…3fd0backed No53c186.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes31c179.04$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.151018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2a66…f499backed No51c175.08$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.43812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-77.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03ec…b9adbacked Yes60c165.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc7e…069abacked Yes61c162.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x794e…b978backed Yes14c157.61$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+258.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd31…613abacked Yes56c151.9$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed No12c144.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.14355.7%2 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes53c143$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes11c140.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.771216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+53.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa71…1bcbbacked No14c139.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.163318.2%6 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf446…1ca2backed Yes59c139.31$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.91850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8e7backed Yes37c137.02$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+171%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfa…3888backed No52c137$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca67…2648backed No63c137$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0905…99adbacked Yes57c136.59$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1910434.6%36 W · 68 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.