TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in December 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$179,559
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$134,259

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,559 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdaaa…f962backed Yes0c21,619$22 inLost-$21.6220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c17,476$17 inLost-$17.481360.7%1 W · 135 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+635.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost-$109816.3%16 W · 82 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c874.71$44 inLost-$44.012,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e5…9751backed Yes9c856.06$80 inLost-$79.5180%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x63a8…8f00backed Yes16c704.05$113 inLost-$112.9812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes2c589.25$12 inLost-$12.43238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-62.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes4c415.76$18 inLost-$18.063810.5%4 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-52.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac45…1dcfbacked Yes4c317$14 inLost-$13.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes6c315.96$18 inLost-$17.853821.1%8 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick17cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7ef…79d6backed Yes7c255$17 inLost-$17.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed Yes6c210$13 inLost-$12.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…c650backed Yes11c199.98$22 inLost-$21.850%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b88…aa2ebacked Yes13c198.76$25 inLost-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5205…8c98backed Yes20c190$38 inLost-$37.9870%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3506…4815backed Yes6c183$11 inLost-$11.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes7c175.33$12 inLost-$12.0234017.1%58 W · 282 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06cd…e124backed Yes8c155$12 inLost-$12.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadcf…9b93backed Yes20c151.38$30 inLost-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf37b…ff02backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$103315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79e9…91f5backed Yes11c99.99$10 inLost-$10.570%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24f8…351ebacked Yes11c98$10 inLost-$10.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.