TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in December 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$165,613
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,881

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,613 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c6,749$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.451,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes0c5,507$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c9…7338backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes2c4,924$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1164798.6%41 W · 438 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes6c4,442$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.955198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes14c3,919$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.2870616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22d7…84e0backed Yes4c2,589$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003026.7%8 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick16cpaid+60.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c2,174$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.831,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5dd…af6dbacked Yes5c2,139$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.76570%0 W · 57 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb10a…ab03backed Yes2c1,800$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.63818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c1,724$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.892,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes2c1,413$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.671824.9%9 W · 173 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes8c1,268$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6414015.7%22 W · 118 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c1,186$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.886915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes2c1,120$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3956.3%6 W · 89 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes3c1,112$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.682794.7%13 W · 266 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c1,048$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.484345.1%22 W · 412 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes2c1,026$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.491027.8%8 W · 94 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb765…84febacked Yes6c1,012$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes9c1,011$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5960127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecf8…603bbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes3c959.33$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9952619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes9c899.94$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.642213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-54.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fa…45d2backed Yes7c800$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.11145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+38.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes10c750.48$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0145911.3%52 W · 407 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ba…e5e6backed Yes5c690$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes3c684.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.332615.4%14 W · 247 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79c5…fbcfbacked Yes3c673.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes13c658.05$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6384616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes8c651.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-60%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47e0…6510backed Yes14c568.52$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.135420.4%11 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc004…5092backed Yes12c521.52$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.23147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-70.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes7c508.86$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.78238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-62.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes5c508.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.164413.6%6 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes13c499.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.519118.8%36 W · 155 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes18c492.87$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.088610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228a…2a55backed Yes11c490.08$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.731540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac9f…df85backed Yes17c458.43$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fa9…7633backed Yes20c449.55$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.71911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-72.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5004…2d13backed Yes5c426$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes14c418.35$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3518123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f60…f025backed Yes5c418$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f64…9138backed Yes10c416.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd714…ea01backed Yes11c403.41$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes9c399.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389816.3%16 W · 82 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a0b…c8acbacked Yes5c370$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb914…d12ebacked Yes16c366.89$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1488…e492backed Yes9c346.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4117924.6%44 W · 135 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes6c326.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9749.5%7 W · 67 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5e3…b2dfbacked Yes18c322.06$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-83.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x651a…9f8fbacked Yes8c311.19$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.122010%2 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b86…d40abacked Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fae…5d6dbacked Yes17c300$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.41533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb94…9d85backed Yes14c282.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3316…bbaebacked Yes19c247.5$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9880%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes8c243.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.422512%3 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-67.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc622…8f86backed Yes14c242.36$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.725024%12 W · 38 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd54…3ffebacked Yes25c221.13$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-77.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x462a…d36dbacked Yes11c210$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+22.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f63…3793backed Yes15c203.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-68.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf32b…94cabacked Yes10c203.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0551…b427backed Yes10c202.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.27912.7%10 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.526224%63 W · 199 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes8c199.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159012.2%11 W · 79 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ca9…37d8backed Yes15c170.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0223…16d6backed Yes7c164.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aab…660dbacked Yes13c155.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes9c150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.541230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae8…0e50backed Yes13c148.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-79.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629e…ac62backed Yes14c146.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc705…e103backed Yes12c140.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.83520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-56.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaae6…a85cbacked Yes11c139.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfffe…13b4backed Yes21c112$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x428b…8f12backed Yes16c110$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe136…82e8backed Yes14c109.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152123.8%5 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes12c109.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.96822.1%15 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c5…b577backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes18c95.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179117.6%16 W · 75 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No75c66.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.492552%13 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+40.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93a…0c67backed No78c25.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.71683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick77cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93e9…06cbbacked No79c18.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.991127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-55.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf08…a74abacked No76c15.79$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.792544%11 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.