Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in December 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6398dabbda3ab555f6a42758e6a8481da1eea0d1e1376c48ca8300dcbb55fd3d

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $237,536
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $176,610

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $237,536 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x50a8…143fbacked Yes	0c	89,799$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.8	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	1cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes	0c	7,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	3,100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	3,049$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.97	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	1c	3,015$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.69	26	0%0 W · 26 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c54…1d08backed Yes	25c	1,978$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	1,796$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	6c	1,734$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.02	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	964.96$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.65	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb465…f187backed Yes	6c	889.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	853.22$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.04	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes	3c	751.16$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	2c	743.75$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa52a…5b16backed Yes	2c	665$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	591.12$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.32	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	5c	575.72$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.23	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	8c	541.43$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.46	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes	4c	487.68$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.45	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	463.72$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.73	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f1…87bcbacked Yes	5c	418.29$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	4c	396.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf2a…5d4abacked Yes	13c	378.57$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes	4c	344$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5792…7731backed Yes	5c	304.31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb179…8cf4backed Yes	5c	300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-86.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	4c	281.52$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.58	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes	11c	266.17$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f90…c022backed Yes	6c	180$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.26	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No	20c	149.64$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.31	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+2.5wins	+0.41per pick	26cpaid	+171.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ad4…ae30backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in December 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event