Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in December 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77701410cdfb6b5701227319811037f9bcb74679315a4d7c5a6b5ac575bec1dc

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $86,699
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $67,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,699 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	3,732$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.98	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	0c	3,482$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.17	26	0%0 W · 26 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	2c	3,160$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.18	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae7…0fd1backed Yes	10c	1,339$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.17	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	9c	1,162$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.34	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	4c	728.34$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.51	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.22per pick	58cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Yes	6c	349.98$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.35	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53c6…b9a7backed Yes	13c	349.97$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.9	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	328.04$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.39	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes	7c	306.61$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.53	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes	9c	300$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-61%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2011…f296backed Yes	6c	299.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	+101.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes	7c	260.43$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.81	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	5c	224.29$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.76	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf01d…c198backed Yes	6c	199.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bad…08a1backed Yes	10c	191.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	29%9 W · 22 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd134…5558backed Yes	9c	169$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.72	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2551…8244backed Yes	9c	150$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes	14c	83.91$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.82	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+53.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in December 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event