Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in December 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf98b503463d735a4f8689d0f9538ddbbaf88f2a277d3ef01f7a0e65e2a389d35

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $240,405
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $127,043

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,405 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x50a8…143fbacked Yes	0c	18,008$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.01	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	1cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	17,357$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.36	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	0c	5,487$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	4,164$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.63	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	1,246$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.06	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83e5…9751backed Yes	8c	841.07$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.6	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x63a8…8f00backed Yes	13c	729.95$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.39	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes	5c	504.45$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.18	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes	13c	372.42$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	92	41.3%38 W · 54 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…c650backed Yes	12c	310.96$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.21	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b88…aa2ebacked Yes	16c	249.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadcf…9b93backed Yes	19c	158.52$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79e9…91f5backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3af…f79cbacked Yes	16c	93.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37ae…0cfcbacked Yes	17c	60$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in December 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event