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Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in December 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$115,312
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,485

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,312 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes0c18,915$19 inLost-$18.91890%0 W · 89 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c12,151$12 inLost-$12.151360.7%1 W · 135 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+635.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes4c2,399$90 inLost-$90.011389.4%13 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,645$57 inLost-$56.542,1883.9%85 W · 2,103 L+4.5wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes4c985.71$40 inLost-$39.5210811.1%12 W · 96 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes3c881.48$23 inLost-$23.483810.5%4 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-52.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1488…e492backed Yes6c752.5$45 inLost-$44.7517924.6%44 W · 135 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes3c588.31$20 inLost-$20.175198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes7c523.66$36 inLost-$36.4146711.3%53 W · 414 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53c6…b9a7backed Yes9c499.99$45 inLost-$453622.2%8 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+26.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8864…3ed5backed Yes3c440.99$13 inLost-$13.231233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c437.18$11 inLost-$11.0399619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes8c387.27$30 inLost-$309012.2%11 W · 79 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Yes5c349.99$17 inLost-$17.52010%2 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes7c349.17$23 inLost-$23.337912.7%10 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes6c331.53$19 inLost-$19.38312%10 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2011…f296backed Yes9c300$27 inLost-$271020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+101.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda64…9bc5backed Yes4c245$10 inLost-$10.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc004…5092backed Yes7c164.71$12 inLost-$12147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-70.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes8c141.9$12 inLost-$11.581216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+53.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad4…ae30backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.