Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in December 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf19d3e362d322486f85606362179fd34656b6a00bbfeb065d3e96b713178c9f1

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 27, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $122,534
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $83,990

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,534 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xed20…84f1backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	3,720$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.68	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	0c	2,365$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.08	26	0%0 W · 26 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	1,799$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.55	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,587$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.19	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	1,457$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab61…1137backed Yes	6c	1,253$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.85	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	4c	1,110$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.13	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	4c	1,092$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.09	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	7c	1,061$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.37	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.3	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	865.34$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.12	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	683.87$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.51	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	7c	674.58$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.88	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	5c	652.48$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.93	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb465…f187backed Yes	9c	572.9$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	3c	567.72$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.58	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes	5c	483.96$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.65	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf2a…5d4abacked Yes	16c	316.93$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	6c	277.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1de5…c008backed Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-73%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe583…2d98backed Yes	9c	249.63$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.05	114	21.1%24 W · 90 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba6b…b341backed Yes	5c	237$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	6c	211.47$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.93	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe227…bb41backed Yes	7c	171.75$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.44	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-2.9wins	-0.12per pick	24cpaid	-70.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	12c	150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.15	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes	15c	135.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	90	12.2%11 W · 79 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-42%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x78c5…c3f3backed Yes	8c	129.33$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in December 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event