Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in December 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc7232af87d4b496866ffacc86712ed6b71f67fa4002cc88d5316b8fb17648db

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $206,712
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $177,837

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,712 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x50a8…143fbacked Yes	0c	40,732$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.73	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	1cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	19,465$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.47	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	10,999$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	7,944$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.8	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	5c	4,301$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.58	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	4,085$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	6c	2,501$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.77	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	12c	2,000$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.16	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	1,600$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c5…fbcfbacked Yes	1c	1,575$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	1,344$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.22	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb200…691dbacked Yes	2c	1,152$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.91	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	16cpaid	+19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	5c	1,061$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.54	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,052$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	3c	1,043$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.97	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	1c	959.21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.15	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes	4c	874.58$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.13	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	811.36$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.8	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	6c	770.54$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.74	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	1c	749.02$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.08	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	3c	730.11$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.79	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0c8…e944backed Yes	5c	691.44$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.75	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	7c	650.45$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.71	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	6c	492.79$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	4c	457.42$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.93	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	12c	456.43$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.49	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes	6c	440.15$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.51	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	5c	346.65$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.69	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	4c	343.92$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x228a…2a55backed Yes	4c	310.55$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.94	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	4c	298.62$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	5c	257.8$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.41	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe612…a441backed Yes	5c	246.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.33	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc004…5092backed Yes	9c	205.11$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.79	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	9c	200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	6c	199.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82cd…dfe7backed Yes	5c	193.17$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes	9c	181.65$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x462a…d36dbacked Yes	8c	165$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.44	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6ea…b011backed Yes	7c	152.57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.29	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5813…7279backed Yes	12c	150.58$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.45	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629e…ac62backed Yes	16c	122.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf728…1632backed Yes	14c	110.34$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-3.0wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes	11c	99.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	262	24%63 W · 199 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in December 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event