TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe6ea…b011

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
52
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: World Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 54 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST1010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$31.23
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$115.16
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$41.16
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$19.36
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$19.55
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$83.73
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+637.2%+$150.67
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$78.72
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$12
All 10 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+23%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$43.5
Hurricanes vs. Capitalsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+88.7%+$16.85
Senators vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+38.9%+$7.78
Panthers vs. Utahbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+151.2%+$23.24
Avalanche vs. Predatorsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Sabres vs. Oilersbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+59.1%+$18.37
All 6 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Clippers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+28.7%+$6.14
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicansbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$19.5
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+39.1%+$4.21
Celtics vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+35.1%+$15.07
All 4 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+148.3%+$156.35
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 8-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$21.39
All 2 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Cricket — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealandbacked New Zealand · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.41
T20 World Cup: England vs Indiabacked India · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+47.1%+$10.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 19, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+97.2%+$23.08
Falcons vs. Buccaneersbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$19.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+132.6%+$15.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+35.1%+$19.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be less than 157m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$37.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Troy vs. Jacksonville Statebacked Troy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$14.33
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.