TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Hurricanes vs. Flyers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hurricanesof Hurricanes, Flyers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$730,112
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$729,942

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $730,112 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 414 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x869b…c625backed Hurricanes62c205,278$126,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78,401.74665.2%30 W · 16 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+21.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6b4…a278backed Flyers38c95,630$36,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,267.1310349.5%51 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Flyers38c72,167$27,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,423.468354.2%45 W · 38 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Flyers38c60,000$22,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,8007946.8%37 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Hurricanes28c59,532$16,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,759.8930944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Flyers71c51,997$36,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,841.851,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Flyers38c37,300$14,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,282.2162249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Hurricanes63c30,000$18,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,10042552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Hurricanes62c21,809$13,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,287.417850%39 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Hurricanes62c20,000$12,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,60010451.9%54 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Hurricanes62c18,888$11,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,177.4421850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Flyers37c17,438$6,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,452.1288151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Hurricanes34c14,732$5,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,704.9820137.8%76 W · 125 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Hurricanes55c12,694$6,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,765.6420951.7%108 W · 101 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Hurricanes60c12,225$7,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,897.9610554.3%57 W · 48 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Flyers38c10,684$4,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,070.0879350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Hurricanes62c10,379$6,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,965.71,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed Flyers39c10,190$4,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,002.972955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Flyers38c10,000$3,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,76051045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Hurricanes61c10,000$6,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,899.9725449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef54…d1eebacked Flyers49c9,460$4,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,682.6617749.2%87 W · 90 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Flyers1c9,118$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.182174.1%9 W · 208 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Hurricanes60c8,936$5,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,541.521,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Flyers39c8,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12014940.9%61 W · 88 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Flyers45c6,671$2,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,974.3957157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Flyers39c6,596$2,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,572.5413551.1%69 W · 66 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a4f…3aa5backed Flyers39c6,002$2,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,340.942360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+38.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9e8…731cbacked Flyers39c6,000$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3406835.3%24 W · 44 L-9.6wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Hurricanes60c6,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40027548.7%134 W · 141 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6e1…456ebacked Hurricanes60c6,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4003100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc62a…c2c7backed Hurricanes63c6,000$3,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2201741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Flyers38c5,726$2,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,193.1822150.2%111 W · 110 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Flyers36c5,440$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,958.414451.4%74 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Flyers49c5,214$2,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,558.932,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Flyers40c5,028$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00060337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Hurricanes61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95086649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hurricanes61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Flyers37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,85012245.9%56 W · 66 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9285…749ebacked Hurricanes57c5,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1502556%14 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Flyers37c4,805$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.031,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Flyers38c4,736$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.6824654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Flyers40c4,708$1,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,883.1151452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Flyers37c4,686$1,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,752.0330551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Hurricanes63c4,664$2,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.1799638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Flyers37c4,600$1,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,704.9851044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Flyers48c4,167$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.1685464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2195…16f9backed Flyers38c3,947$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5004440.9%18 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hurricanes61c3,406$2,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,313.012,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Hurricanes63c3,333$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.213363.2%84 W · 49 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Flyers38c3,200$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2167659.2%45 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Hurricanes61c3,039$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.151,05442.5%448 W · 606 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb5…502fbacked Flyers38c2,930$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+37.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x957a…977ebacked Hurricanes62c2,910$1,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa63c…27a4backed Flyers39c2,641$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0301963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+24.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8729…9a8dbacked Flyers37c2,600$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9621471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Flyers39c2,577$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00023047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Flyers61c2,562$1,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,571.0643742.3%185 W · 252 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Hurricanes64c2,531$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.08862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Flyers39c2,514$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.2716346%75 W · 88 L-9.9wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0624…053fbacked Hurricanes32c2,492$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.67560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x336a…1915backed Flyers39c2,481$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.633551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Flyers1c2,222$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.227450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Hurricanes62c2,210$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.9692848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6077…f4f4backed Hurricanes61c2,180$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.6711037.3%41 W · 69 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Flyers1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb07…0769backed Flyers3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60267.7%2 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-51.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Flyers39c2,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.9538046.6%177 W · 203 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Flyers51c1,912$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.795049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Flyers40c1,775$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71026946.1%124 W · 145 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Hurricanes53c1,763$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.12,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Flyers39c1,710$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.7369550.1%348 W · 347 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee0…5233backed Flyers40c1,668$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6672250%11 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2838…fdd3backed Hurricanes61c1,649$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.954425%11 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Flyers48c1,630$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.4575251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Flyers40c1,601$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.626147.5%29 W · 32 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40c7…2e7cbacked Flyers39c1,600$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d9d…992bbacked Hurricanes25c1,595$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.661250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedb1…819ebacked Hurricanes63c1,563$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.492065%13 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…1b96backed Flyers39c1,546$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60320047.5%95 W · 105 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad07…f121backed Flyers40c1,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+70.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b28…66f0backed Flyers40c1,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010850.9%55 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Flyers36c1,500$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54036038.6%139 W · 221 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c1b…cc3abacked Hurricanes62c1,500$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.98862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Hurricanes59c1,480$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.883652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Flyers38c1,447$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.861,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Hurricanes63c1,429$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.5747256.8%268 W · 204 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Hurricanes63c1,400$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51831848.1%153 W · 165 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Flyers72c1,320$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.171145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Hurricanes61c1,200$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46868449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x702d…a37fbacked Flyers40c1,200$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92eb…44c4backed Hurricanes63c1,150$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.5887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick52cpaid+78.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf5c3…955abacked Flyers38c1,145$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Hurricanes65c1,108$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.845752.6%30 W · 27 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Hurricanes62c1,020$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.081,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Hurricanes62c1,002$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.6724349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Flyers49c1,000$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.3429926.4%79 W · 220 L-20.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Flyers39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39063249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dba…dc6dbacked Hurricanes61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3901100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7443…e010backed Flyers40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cb4…48e3backed Hurricanes26c961.54$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.544546.7%21 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.