TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$894,155
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$863,101

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $894,155 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x09d3…4e84backed Yes13c57,678$7,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,628.4140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c3c…7caabacked Yes6c26,466$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes4c15,345$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.88320%0 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes1c15,084$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.3828021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5faf…1183backed No37c15,055$5,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,484.571323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick15cpaid-39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes31c12,560$3,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,904.8187828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes13c12,368$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.9914019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed No36c9,090$3,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,811.642718.5%5 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e0…016abacked Yes11c8,829$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.9470%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef8…99d0backed Yes0c8,034$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes3c8,000$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82cf…bc82backed Yes6c7,783$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.43110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2053…1eedbacked Yes14c7,145$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7205…e1d6backed Yes0c7,119$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes22c6,734$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.1258126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes56c6,347$3,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,532.85450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad1f…6c61backed Yes16c6,250$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99212129.8%36 W · 85 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+142.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f7f…2352backed Yes32c5,987$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,905.135726.3%15 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes5c5,732$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.331422.1%3 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x136b…b79dbacked No44c5,659$2,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,169.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde17…0988backed Yes4c5,291$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.193056.7%17 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes5c5,049$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.263312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-69.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c4,909$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.391,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb085…ed58backed Yes22c4,806$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes50c4,725$2,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,344.2822550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61ee…932cbacked Yes76c4,672$3,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,567.24944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1d4…4404backed Yes54c4,592$2,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,479.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes53c4,576$2,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,408.5214340.6%58 W · 85 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cc…2dd9backed Yes4c4,564$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes57c4,444$2,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,539.234848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b64…707bbacked Yes5c4,144$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1981414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-50.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes3c4,002$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7780%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe14b…1ad3backed No25c3,939$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,942.123633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes6c3,332$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.67466.5%3 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-81.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c55…9e26backed Yes3c2,993$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c2,895$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.996785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb372…2048backed Yes6c2,880$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes3c2,768$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80786.4%5 W · 73 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c45…31c4backed Yes6c2,680$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a62…4f8dbacked Yes8c2,657$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-49.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c2,581$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.28940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bfb…7632backed Yes24c2,557$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b09…015cbacked Yes17c2,420$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.775016%8 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes4c2,396$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.27250%0 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd78c…3469backed Yes5c2,279$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.64861.2%1 W · 85 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed No37c2,042$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.914341.9%18 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked No75c2,041$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.4519535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b92…5ba3backed Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick3cpaid+1,983.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ede…57c0backed Yes14c2,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd14…1c17backed Yes65c1,920$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.715954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01e7…d932backed Yes58c1,770$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.862152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+110.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes9c1,762$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.663998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0070…0414backed Yes44c1,743$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.144654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41fe…79c1backed Yes14c1,694$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.263923.1%9 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes2c1,502$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.262270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes28c1,465$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.43836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05cb…f625backed Yes32c1,435$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.892213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid+141.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbb9…5d3fbacked Yes15c1,424$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes8c1,400$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1112683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes19c1,355$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.372020%4 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-67.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b7a…8304backed No77c1,166$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.594161%25 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfc0…eb3cbacked Yes19c1,157$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79b9…7d93backed Yes9c1,142$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes4c1,125$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.812417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa271…2727backed Yes1c1,124$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.290%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3844…3ca3backed Yes20c1,110$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+140.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes6c1,076$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6710315.5%16 W · 87 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid+28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a36…1621backed Yes9c1,068$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.55137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-84.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No76c1,064$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.3540643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf921…be16backed Yes10c1,043$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.85429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes4c1,027$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.23013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1de4…96ffbacked No77c1,024$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.74560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc95d…c470backed Yes5c1,015$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5b…0f93backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f31…4dccbacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-62.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes9c976.83$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4631523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd609…40f4backed Yes11c891.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100496.1%3 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d9…6f76backed No59c861.08$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41da…f8e8backed Yes25c838.83$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.33910.3%4 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x967b…cc39backed Yes20c795.1$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef72…3c45backed Yes5c777$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.034528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb4d…e39ebacked Yes70c767.79$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x034e…f79dbacked Yes4c759.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273718.9%7 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+78.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes9c755.13$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.22416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-45.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bff…52e6backed No40c750$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17a6…fc06backed No40c750$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa09e…adc9backed No40c750$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4502100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+292.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes6c720$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.843647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73b7…7933backed Yes19c720$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.52821.4%6 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a3f…7112backed Yes14c717.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002512%3 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88df…a457backed Yes28c662$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.13330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-48.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3761…bb47backed Yes2c636.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.126615.2%10 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedad…17b2backed Yes59c600$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3516250%31 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8561…01d5backed Yes9c560.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes32c544.88$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.129427.7%26 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ade…ac2bbacked Yes5c544.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.17185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes5c537.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.652581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9897…889ebacked Yes10c526.3$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1dd…a272backed No48c506.33$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.9411726.5%31 W · 86 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.