Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 23-March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaae01d6d65168706e360100f87121d138ab35c9cb61a6383fddb9ec385d24d01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $354,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $277,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $354,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 4c | 54,175$2,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,225.08 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 3c | 28,853$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.3 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 1c | 25,105$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.52 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 0c | 15,771$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8869…c975backed Yes | 2c | 13,793$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.79 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef8…99d0backed Yes | 0c | 10,176$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 8,109$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 5c | 7,746$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,339$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f8…f072backed Yes | 1c | 4,977$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,071$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x788b…9386backed Yes | 0c | 3,950$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 3,469$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed Yes | 7c | 2,530$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.18 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,392$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…c27ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,276$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed Yes | 1c | 2,076$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 2c | 2,072$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 10c | 2,012$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.42 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,921$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…b7f8backed Yes | 1c | 1,834$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…4d42backed Yes | 1c | 1,809$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077b…243ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,667$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 3c | 1,633$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 1c | 1,470$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 1c | 1,355$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,068$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8d…a0d6backed Yes | 2c | 1,003$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…7999backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bc…46ccbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…5652backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc9…24dcbacked Yes | 3c | 971.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…2353backed Yes | 2c | 966.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b0…e15dbacked Yes | 5c | 926.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 10c | 914.7$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 832.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd69…0986backed Yes | 12c | 810.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -85%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…27a9backed Yes | 4c | 699.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 15c | 656.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +177.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 16c | 617.65$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed Yes | 6c | 531.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes | 12c | 415.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…de81backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 16c | 135.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 23-March 1?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 February 23-March 1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 23-March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.