Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 23-March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79040ea2e9a26176183730413b457b857e1c73a8e2e5d344c66e6feed2134de9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $384,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $327,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $384,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes | 0c | 61,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 5c | 22,082$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.52 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…4dccbacked Yes | 3c | 19,235$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.4 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef8…99d0backed Yes | 0c | 12,626$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes | 0c | 12,006$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc6…43c4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 3c | 9,483$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.68 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,325$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed Yes | 12c | 7,342$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.57 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,812$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 3c | 6,062$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 4,382$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,856$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,396$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed Yes | 1c | 3,308$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…e800backed Yes | 3c | 3,289$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 3,249$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…c470backed Yes | 3c | 3,128$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1383…0516backed Yes | 4c | 3,090$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +526.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4006…f9debacked Yes | 2c | 2,738$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Yes | 4c | 2,590$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…8fa8backed Yes | 1c | 2,482$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 1c | 2,258$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524e…fe92backed Yes | 1c | 2,249$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…e1d6backed Yes | 1c | 2,075$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x788b…9386backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked Yes | 1c | 1,843$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 3c | 1,824$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 2c | 1,623$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62bc…5761backed Yes | 1c | 1,356$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 3c | 1,341$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,236$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes | 4c | 1,123$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,113$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5409…9fb2backed Yes | 1c | 1,076$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 3c | 1,074$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa316…3a38backed Yes | 1c | 937.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 2c | 814.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…40f4backed Yes | 14c | 731.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…6cd2backed Yes | 19c | 532.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 6c | 514.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27e1…704bbacked Yes | 21c | 476.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…268cbacked Yes | 3c | 471.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x029d…8d3dbacked Yes | 24c | 417.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1b…4eddbacked Yes | 4c | 416.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154d…99f9backed Yes | 3c | 403.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 8c | 389.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…ac2bbacked Yes | 15c | 354.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…b5bfbacked Yes | 9c | 339.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 15c | 330$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…f78cbacked Yes | 3c | 326.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 4c | 299.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b0…3b60backed Yes | 6c | 259.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 247.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 174.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…1621backed Yes | 9c | 162.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…6884backed Yes | 10c | 122.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 13c | 107.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…de81backed Yes | 12c | 98.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f4…c3d1backed Yes | 17c | 70.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…f887backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 75cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 23-March 1?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 February 23-March 1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 23-March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.