Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 23-March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7892011ef606f32cc6c989a1f0700ce1054bf72546bb5e65f528cfb66cf6c657
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $333,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $324,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $333,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 3c | 68,318$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220.69 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 5c | 12,111$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.97 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…4dccbacked Yes | 5c | 9,235$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.06 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 16c | 8,224$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.25 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…c470backed Yes | 2c | 8,157$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 3c | 7,953$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.04 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd1…2365backed Yes | 30c | 5,200$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…51a5backed Yes | 3c | 5,008$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.77 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 18c | 5,000$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3c…7caabacked Yes | 1c | 4,627$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed Yes | 14c | 4,294$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.58 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 8c | 3,996$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 3,636$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.35 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,354$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes | 6c | 3,170$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.7 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,984$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.34 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224c…ee07backed Yes | 4c | 2,849$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…3d61backed Yes | 0c | 2,828$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 4c | 2,712$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 3c | 2,624$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 4c | 2,604$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed No | 77c | 2,516$1,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.26 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 5c | 2,260$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.43 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 1c | 2,213$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,889$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 1c | 1,531$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.98 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 3c | 1,498$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8869…c975backed Yes | 5c | 1,494$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3582…c82dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,423$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 5c | 1,414$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x559a…c9a3backed Yes | 10c | 1,390$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 1,330$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 1,224$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x569a…ed5cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,096$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed Yes | 1c | 1,095$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes | 3c | 1,056$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…cff3backed Yes | 1c | 1,033$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f7…0e56backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f9…45e4backed Yes | 1c | 913.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 850$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd69…0986backed Yes | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -85%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…0414backed No | 76c | 823.03$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.56 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a6…02cfbacked Yes | 7c | 800$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b0…26d9backed Yes | 13c | 744.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6efc…9156backed Yes | 4c | 740$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e1…1728backed Yes | 4c | 472.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +188.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 31c | 453$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.43 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +346.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e9…7158backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 28c | 400$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 28c | 355.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +177.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 31c | 319.35$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…37f4backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…2353backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…5d7bbacked Yes | 6c | 260$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 10c | 211.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77a6…4387backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 6c | 194.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes | 10c | 194.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1e…4a65backed Yes | 18c | 185.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13bd…c1e6backed Yes | 31c | 157.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…aa96backed Yes | 10c | 147.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 9c | 146$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0822…82efbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c9…2afcbacked Yes | 25c | 81.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…be7abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa515…6202backed No | 75c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…f887backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 75cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 23-March 1?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 February 23-March 1?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 February 23-March 1?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 23-March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.