TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 23-March 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$595,216
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$558,423

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $595,216 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes4c134,761$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,040.2328021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09d3…4e84backed Yes5c19,678$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.1240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes3c18,161$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.39320%0 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c12,130$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.35940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes3c10,900$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.619427.7%26 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8869…c975backed Yes10c10,051$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0501010%1 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes14c9,668$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.9258126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef72…3c45backed Yes2c9,408$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.974528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebb2…b265backed Yes20c8,358$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.42045%9 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes7c7,777$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.6380%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes2c7,468$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.893312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-69.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x916b…644cbacked Yes28c7,101$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes5c6,154$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.413836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,671$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.471,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f31…4dccbacked Yes3c5,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.94147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-62.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82cf…bc82backed Yes7c4,613$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fac…4723backed Yes26c4,323$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.68147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-89.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes21c4,210$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.1519535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8193…3581backed Yes1c4,194$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes4c4,187$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.611422.1%3 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb085…ed58backed Yes6c4,018$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes24c4,015$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.3987828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ca…2f1dbacked Yes52c3,839$1,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,996.3440%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c3,680$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.96785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes2c3,328$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.854754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes8c3,000$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2323537.1%13 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+37.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes4c2,990$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.61288.6%11 W · 117 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-32.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a3f…7112backed Yes7c2,935$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.052512%3 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05cb…f625backed Yes14c2,857$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid+141.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes4c2,637$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.753013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…3469backed Yes3c2,625$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.97861.2%1 W · 85 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes3c2,614$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8e5…a18dbacked Yes2c2,174$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc95d…c470backed Yes2c2,086$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb27e…29d4backed Yes14c2,023$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c9…65febacked Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa996…99dabacked Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202913.8%4 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes5c1,784$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.17250%0 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes7c1,728$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.793998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes2c1,709$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.092270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5e…3921backed Yes16c1,680$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.321612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-61.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad1f…6c61backed Yes37c1,627$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59712129.8%36 W · 85 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+142.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd609…40f4backed Yes7c1,450$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100496.1%3 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5b…0f93backed Yes4c1,421$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc0…eb3cbacked Yes7c1,394$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf575…c1d5backed Yes7c1,355$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.61100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x460e…addabacked Yes7c1,341$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe82…6611backed Yes6c1,339$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8690%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb4d…e39ebacked Yes25c1,205$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f80…4cfcbacked Yes1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3552…51a5backed Yes9c1,178$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.91166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick24cpaid-91.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa271…2727backed Yes1c1,178$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6390%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01e7…d932backed Yes38c1,068$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.772152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+110.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes7c1,037$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70786.4%5 W · 73 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes5c1,017$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.832683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes15c1,000$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.992412.5%3 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0066…394fbacked Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d20…606abacked Yes31c1,000$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31350%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77a6…4387backed Yes7c1,000$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-80.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes18c971.33$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.643644.4%16 W · 20 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+177.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9897…889ebacked Yes5c934.57$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0770…912cbacked Yes5c925.93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f8…f072backed Yes1c901.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6300%0 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes6c864.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.93466.5%3 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-81.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes3c863.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.192581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b1b…29cdbacked Yes6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+209.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf60b…ff5fbacked Yes16c824.97$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.451145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+47.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x034e…f79dbacked Yes3c795.32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243718.9%7 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+78.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes50c789.98$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39834848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9026…8df5backed Yes16c784.45$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1262015%3 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x569a…ed5cbacked Yes5c769.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed No55c750.72$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.864341.9%18 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacca…08b1backed Yes53c636.19$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.182850%14 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+81%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x276b…9116backed Yes2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1205%1 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-90.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61ee…932cbacked Yes38c600$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78f8…2a8abacked Yes11c521.21$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88df…a457backed Yes23c516$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.323330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-48.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3d16…8ac4backed Yes11c474.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes27c450$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-62%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa85…907abacked Yes7c420$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes52c382.69$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19914340.6%58 W · 85 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f20…5d9bbacked Yes7c371.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-26%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc9…24dcbacked Yes9c371.22$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.415111.8%6 W · 45 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30f6…0acabacked Yes27c365.07$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-53.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad77…8992backed Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Yes6c320$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.783724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ede…57c0backed Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x672b…e909backed Yes7c291.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes51c264.71$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1352445.8%11 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.21per pick25cpaid+346.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3a10…8bd7backed Yes22c256.82$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf223…86acbacked No78c255.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c1…3be7backed Yes5c255.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x083c…f78cbacked Yes6c250.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.11270%0 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddfe…4c2ebacked Yes19c246.5$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x92e0…0f3fbacked Yes7c238.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x171e…e046backed Yes22c231.64$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.96425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-67.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b8a…19f3backed Yes22c231.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No79c224.92$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2331523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9204…7bd5backed Yes6c218.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.023030%9 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe49…27a9backed Yes5c209.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.081010%1 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-61.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.