TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 February 23-March 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,189,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,257,333

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,189,488 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 244 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes2c101,789$1,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,868.07320%0 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d6…96f6backed Yes0c77,535$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1461…22d8backed Yes28c50,184$13,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,891.752777.8%21 W · 6 L+7.0wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+29.2%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x4124…8af2backed Yes4c44,839$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.142152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55e2…5fc9backed Yes3c24,275$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.911833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes24c17,526$4,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,205.7887828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes8c13,561$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.7828021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ef8…99d0backed Yes0c11,520$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e75…4e58backed Yes6c11,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000e…8f8fbacked Yes55c10,828$5,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,925.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes29c10,718$3,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,141.1722550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c3c…7caabacked Yes3c10,630$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xde17…0988backed Yes3c8,053$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.223056.7%17 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No70c7,468$5,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,263.7758126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed No22c6,675$1,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,206.231752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+66.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e17…5aacbacked No73c6,569$4,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31fa…20c5backed Yes17c5,898$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes5c5,380$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.61422.1%3 W · 139 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes22c4,393$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9606723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe784…e664backed Yes13c4,264$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.342626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5409…9fb2backed Yes3c4,179$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.3440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa479…6a67backed Yes2c4,153$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.77166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-81.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6253…ce67backed Yes4c3,778$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.75825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes3c3,710$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.81466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes6c3,418$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.4280%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0070…0414backed Yes23c3,369$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.824654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes13c3,335$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.013013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85ef…3116backed Yes4c3,171$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.39306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x696f…d8b9backed Yes3c3,125$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes1c3,091$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.342270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c3,028$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.081,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53b5…d768backed Yes11c2,953$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.032321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes3c2,785$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70786.4%5 W · 73 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c2,714$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.026785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad1f…6c61backed Yes30c2,650$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80012129.8%36 W · 85 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+142.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes4c2,623$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.02250%0 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda4a…2184backed Yes3c2,597$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.411127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes33c2,316$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.1414340.6%58 W · 85 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c39…b28bbacked Yes18c2,210$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d1…12b4backed Yes9c2,112$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e93…0d5fbacked Yes32c2,111$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x276b…9116backed Yes3c2,050$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8205%1 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-90.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd78c…3469backed Yes4c2,038$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1861.2%1 W · 85 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd609…40f4backed Yes5c2,008$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100496.1%3 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Yes16c2,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3202718.5%5 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed No5c2,000$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9106613.6%9 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes26c1,901$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.261421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-55%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes52c1,844$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.1612259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x569a…ed5cbacked Yes3c1,802$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes8c1,776$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.673998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes21c1,746$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3711855.6%10 W · 8 L+7.2wins+0.40per pick15cpaid+556.8%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes16c1,740$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.752020%4 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-67.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf274…37f4backed Yes4c1,713$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.815612.5%7 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+48.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7280…65d2backed Yes20c1,682$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.561020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-66.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e8f…e1ebbacked No67c1,572$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.923100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13dd…b2b7backed Yes7c1,510$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.852218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-59.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc936…d1f3backed No79c1,507$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef72…3c45backed Yes10c1,500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1554528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aa8…1f7bbacked Yes4c1,365$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No73c1,283$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.3540643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedad…17b2backed No68c1,265$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.116250%31 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9135…7efbbacked Yes12c1,249$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa271…2727backed Yes1c1,231$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1990%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d67…cf6abacked Yes44c1,221$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes32c1,197$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.6334848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fe…025cbacked Yes59c1,194$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcab…e3a5backed Yes37c1,154$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes2c1,023$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes4c1,015$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.722683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5bb…a429backed No63c1,000$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3724151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4503836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x986b…56bcbacked No30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7002528%7 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82cf…bc82backed Yes3c934.61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27110%0 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d74…596bbacked Yes2c933.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.75263.8%1 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-92.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x491e…59adbacked Yes3c930.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01e7…d932backed Yes74c922.04$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.352152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+110.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a50…af41backed Yes12c916.2$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9350%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No29c911$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.767163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc44a…8da6backed Yes6c877.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes3c855.56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe474…1508backed Yes62c811.68$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-43.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0066…394fbacked Yes19c805.24$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.26119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7bf6…3544backed Yes3c795.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe62b…28b4backed Yes11c787.96$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b64…707bbacked Yes2c784.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-50.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes16c781.36$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.937018.6%13 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f7…2353backed Yes3c780.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes14c769.65$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3131523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6364…8316backed Yes3c733.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.382729.6%8 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14de…2c97backed Yes6c733.34$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x154d…99f9backed Yes33c718.65$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No72c670.75$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.3321651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x453d…f3bbbacked Yes3c666.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes3c664.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0688…7a12backed No70c660$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1984650%23 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe626…6771backed Yes12c656.98$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.972839.3%11 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick29cpaid-8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0313…67dbbacked Yes29c631.02$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.91616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-76.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3761…bb47backed Yes5c630.38$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336615.2%10 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+27.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24a5…6fc0backed Yes5c610.73$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes4c600$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.72581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.