World Politics · resolved market
Honduras Election: Nasralla flips Asfura by Tuesday 12 PM ET?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39d470494406aadf2dc645f146978d6758abfca5de8f2c6011caf9da6e2b7914
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…7cb3backed No | 4c | 8,620$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 30c | 5,448$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,793.25 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 69c | 4,154$2,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.96 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…04a9backed No | 1c | 3,214$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…a3a4backed No | 71c | 2,818$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 2c | 1,370$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe4…ff36backed No | 19c | 1,350$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a58…9a5ebacked No | 64c | 1,200$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 69c | 1,050$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.5 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x205e…1925backed No | 20c | 791.24$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed No | 14c | 547.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e1…354dbacked No | 67c | 500$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 29c | 357.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.4 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed No | 69c | 300$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed No | 10c | 250$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 69c | 200$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…0bb1backed No | 68c | 188.07$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c49…7af9backed No | 74c | 125$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -76%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed No | 68c | 125$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 33c | 101$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…42cebacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe67a…c44dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…f5bbbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6586…c69cbacked Yes | 33c | 95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 26c | 59.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Yes | 24c | 58.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ea…b011backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec5…07fdbacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +293%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd140…9554backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe294…b1f1backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…e564backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3af…f79cbacked No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.