AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4df1db0ea210284e2d79a237b9a50f62ca905d60cb05c6f763e94f3b0055d15e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,153,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,083,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,153,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 610 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0f7…683cbacked No | 13c | 65,433$8,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,631.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 8c | 43,952$3,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,382.77 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…0279backed No | 11c | 37,050$3,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,995.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadf…b1edbacked No | 0c | 34,613$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b2…5dc9backed Yes | 57c | 27,344$15,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,795.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked No | 13c | 26,636$3,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,544.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed No | 11c | 23,053$2,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,427.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8003…25c3backed No | 10c | 21,858$2,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,118.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbca…3b1ebacked No | 17c | 21,570$3,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,588.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed No | 16c | 17,088$2,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,748.66 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d39…82cabacked No | 23c | 16,535$3,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,872 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5589…d13bbacked No | 18c | 15,742$2,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,894.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8634…55cfbacked No | 1c | 13,435$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed No | 11c | 10,505$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.72 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee3…66afbacked No | 7c | 9,764$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +185.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353d…3365backed No | 14c | 9,516$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 2c | 9,127$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.79 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…6471backed No | 16c | 8,886$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 14c | 7,671$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.8 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…0a15backed No | 14c | 7,373$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ad…9a6dbacked No | 12c | 7,285$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 80c | 6,757$5,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.83 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…b463backed No | 20c | 6,684$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc298…dd43backed No | 30c | 6,571$1,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2994…fde2backed No | 1c | 6,526$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe199…0befbacked No | 12c | 6,401$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed No | 15c | 5,533$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed No | 12c | 5,249$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.14 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…3c44backed No | 16c | 5,109$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…c818backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 74c | 4,900$3,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.23 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e1…60febacked No | 17c | 4,614$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 4,502$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…c092backed No | 20c | 4,302$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…7d02backed No | 13c | 4,192$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036e…1ecbbacked No | 13c | 3,948$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a0…2c5abacked No | 27c | 3,655$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 38c | 3,538$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37d4…966dbacked No | 12c | 3,456$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…119abacked No | 28c | 3,381$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab1…ed8bbacked No | 10c | 3,362$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ec…5d2ebacked No | 33c | 3,310$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…7626backed No | 15c | 3,288$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…fdb3backed No | 7c | 3,275$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.17 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5888…b179backed No | 17c | 3,256$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5299…f785backed No | 11c | 3,148$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…8f6cbacked No | 2c | 3,144$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 22c | 3,115$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 12c | 3,098$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.5 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed No | 27c | 3,054$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd578…9d00backed No | 13c | 3,040$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf622…162ebacked No | 7c | 2,977$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc630…fbe4backed No | 11c | 2,944$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…f8ddbacked No | 10c | 2,747$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fe…8043backed No | 24c | 2,675$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…569cbacked No | 14c | 2,673$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked No | 12c | 2,530$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…c2abbacked No | 14c | 2,500$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…8a35backed No | 15c | 2,490$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c25…2971backed No | 15c | 2,456$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 19c | 2,350$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x763d…d0f2backed No | 10c | 2,302$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -73%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7d…7e80backed No | 23c | 2,299$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 15c | 2,223$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.4 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x963b…4af5backed No | 9c | 2,220$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 8c | 2,130$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.18 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 66c | 2,020$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.62 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked No | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 11c | 1,980$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae86…9deabacked No | 16c | 1,978$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0247…84d6backed Yes | 67c | 1,974$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 79c | 1,967$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.65 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe631…c7babacked No | 1c | 1,920$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 73c | 1,885$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.89 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00a8…0cbebacked No | 13c | 1,850$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8e77backed No | 11c | 1,775$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked No | 14c | 1,775$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.04 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…0d9dbacked No | 15c | 1,763$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 11c | 1,762$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.49 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 7c | 1,670$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked No | 10c | 1,660$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.68 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed No | 9c | 1,654$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7428…8f65backed No | 12c | 1,640$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…cb8abacked No | 14c | 1,627$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.46 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1288…dac9backed No | 18c | 1,605$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked No | 4c | 1,600$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…27aebacked No | 8c | 1,568$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.05 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d13…bb89backed Yes | 79c | 1,560$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…6e5ebacked No | 13c | 1,550$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…2ed0backed No | 22c | 1,540$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 5c | 1,520$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7019…dcefbacked No | 12c | 1,507$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked No | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed No | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…df9ebacked No | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…0d1cbacked No | 9c | 1,500$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…2e1fbacked No | 10c | 1,498$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked No | 14c | 1,481$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.27 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?this page
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 31?Yes won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.