AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe863c81d5f7615fbe794c31def74955ea8ae18eb86b9d2844335106792da4bd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $452,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $430,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $452,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8003…25c3backed No | 2c | 111,876$1,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,909.11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…0279backed No | 2c | 79,563$1,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…1d22backed No | 1c | 50,583$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.17 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +220.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…605ebacked No | 2c | 13,966$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 1c | 13,903$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.29 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ad…9a6dbacked No | 5c | 11,669$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 0c | 6,400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,322$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…ea92backed No | 2c | 5,376$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ba…6655backed No | 2c | 5,322$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a68…045fbacked No | 2c | 5,283$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked No | 4c | 5,000$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked No | 6c | 3,194$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.63 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed No | 2c | 3,100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff1…c85ebacked No | 3c | 2,937$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed No | 3c | 2,798$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…6b44backed No | 5c | 2,417$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 4c | 2,383$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8e…f2a2backed No | 4c | 2,223$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8e77backed No | 5c | 2,042$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 2c | 1,978$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x759f…eafabacked No | 4c | 1,977$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 2c | 1,975$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 2c | 1,855$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…17cebacked No | 3c | 1,728$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 1,705$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee3…66afbacked No | 4c | 1,598$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +185.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…b1febacked No | 2c | 1,547$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc850…7bb8backed No | 2c | 1,326$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 6c | 1,300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7a…944bbacked No | 3c | 1,297$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…054bbacked No | 1c | 1,289$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5888…b179backed No | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1288…dac9backed No | 5c | 1,119$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed No | 2c | 1,059$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…28a1backed No | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc55e…bfdbbacked No | 1c | 995.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 2c | 987.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…87f4backed No | 4c | 914.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x925b…640ebacked No | 2c | 864$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 3c | 850.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 2c | 820$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…169abacked No | 3c | 809.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122a…d7b4backed No | 5c | 792.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d3…6996backed No | 7c | 748.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 3c | 723.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 2c | 700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 2c | 700$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…0d1cbacked No | 2c | 700$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…31c9backed No | 3c | 625$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…d3e2backed No | 5c | 617.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked No | 3c | 609.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc7…0a2bbacked No | 3c | 608.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x036e…1ecbbacked No | 3c | 606.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed No | 6c | 597.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…a3a4backed No | 3c | 589.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4896…fe47backed No | 3c | 577.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b21…166ebacked No | 4c | 555.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…fe0dbacked No | 5c | 533.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797a…101fbacked No | 4c | 522.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 4c | 433.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…439dbacked No | 5c | 397.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…bd21backed No | 4c | 383.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…3295backed No | 5c | 364.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc98…eae2backed No | 5c | 349.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…1306backed No | 4c | 309.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e26…fdefbacked No | 4c | 284.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fd…b1a1backed No | 6c | 250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 31?this page
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?Yes won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.