TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,185,435
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,627,000

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,185,435 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,795 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1295…5cfdbacked Yes42c424,201$177,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177,109.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b4f…6678backed Yes6c198,233$11,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,920.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ab…383dbacked Yes29c159,188$46,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,999.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+235.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Yes25c115,840$28,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,674.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes13c93,167$11,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,995.96633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a65…25adbacked Yes39c88,553$34,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,139.49450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x205e…1925backed Yes34c77,192$26,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,027.721136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes8c76,150$6,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,093.594334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes12c75,535$9,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,420.759334.4%32 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9804…6896backed No58c74,970$43,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,487.554100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+114.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf5c…4d73backed Yes13c70,809$9,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,415.32425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c19…0e31backed Yes67c60,136$39,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,996.310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94a5…aec1backed Yes49c49,485$24,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,002.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No68c43,936$29,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,230.1125337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f52…8cbbbacked Yes8c41,787$3,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,54810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes4c41,454$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,568.294413.6%6 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e4e…411abacked Yes30c40,432$12,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,331.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x439b…f412backed Yes35c40,065$14,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,055.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad67…8cd3backed Yes12c39,752$4,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.4825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes33c37,225$12,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,131.564425%11 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+61.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…aecebacked Yes32c36,592$11,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,747.041435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes14c35,879$5,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,148.74221.4%9 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-66.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781f…c9febacked Yes13c35,412$4,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,682.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes19c35,206$6,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,712.514035%14 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Yes44c33,933$14,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,794.23944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes6c33,038$1,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,886.161520%3 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes7c32,874$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.636883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6989…b412backed Yes54c31,997$17,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,244.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e12…1c24backed Yes51c31,786$16,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,119.071060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa51c…db68backed Yes3c30,000$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0173…c32fbacked Yes14c26,590$3,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,665.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No50c26,529$13,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,296.712345.5%56 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes21c26,315$5,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,642.5716612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes11c25,591$2,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,858.772814.3%4 W · 24 L-7.2wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-69.8%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes41c25,549$10,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,509.523537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+50.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x101e…eaf4backed Yes19c25,088$4,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,769.431513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-62.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked No54c24,829$13,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,318.554459.1%26 W · 18 L+6.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes61c24,227$14,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,820.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes34c24,221$8,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,120.288821.6%19 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes2c24,205$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.9118530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ec8…5709backed Yes66c24,060$15,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,946.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f62…d3a9backed Yes75c24,006$17,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,979.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes18c22,837$4,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,098.8115026%39 W · 111 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes8c22,119$1,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,844.253540%14 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb659…c375backed Yes42c22,072$9,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,248.47540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-35.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0624…053fbacked Yes54c22,033$11,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,875.19837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba5…f684backed No65c21,391$13,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,586.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Yes46c21,168$9,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,835.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x442a…7c94backed Yes24c20,008$4,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,809.166141%25 W · 36 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+93.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e9b…36a5backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed Yes50c19,916$9,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,905.7330%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ab5…1d6ebacked Yes5c19,764$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.59728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Yes38c19,615$7,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,516.791338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Yes25c19,331$4,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,827.121546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8db0…3b50backed Yes16c19,311$3,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,138.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No68c18,777$12,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,007.981866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc060…8956backed Yes30c18,260$5,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,405.41735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0542…69babacked Yes6c17,768$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes35c16,944$5,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,972.176030%18 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No68c16,924$11,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,481.319053.3%48 W · 42 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes37c16,769$6,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,150.7310127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7104…afefbacked Yes43c16,663$7,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,091.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes23c16,451$3,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,710.514126.8%11 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed Yes37c16,263$6,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,042.64520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Yes27c15,947$4,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,289.14475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+135.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a57…14a1backed Yes54c15,117$8,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,208.032360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked No32c15,066$4,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,196.02944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x607b…2592backed Yes40c15,000$5,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,991.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bd5…8971backed Yes45c14,325$6,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,402.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5718…db20backed No59c13,806$8,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,629.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab66…ed33backed Yes27c13,740$3,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,642.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1711…d1acbacked No42c13,538$5,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,912.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-65.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfe…2530backed No43c13,333$5,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,599.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ad…12d4backed Yes57c13,333$7,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,599.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9187…4309backed Yes34c13,135$4,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,505.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1728…c190backed Yes9c13,083$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…e36dbacked Yes44c13,067$5,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,701.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Yes51c13,000$6,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,58020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a4e…65ddbacked Yes30c12,830$3,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,911.140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8956…755fbacked Yes35c12,776$4,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,489.851735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid+29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes9c12,561$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.346219.4%12 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x049e…dddebacked Yes7c12,560$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Yes47c12,147$5,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,721.7140%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7fc…85a7backed Yes39c11,911$4,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,654.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd547…f7a8backed Yes19c11,842$2,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,297.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No66c11,195$7,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,794.638035%28 W · 52 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes33c11,158$3,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,674.192152.4%11 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick36cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xead7…c6e0backed Yes3c11,063$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.3440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes15c10,934$1,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,590.894916.3%8 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe96…65acbacked No77c10,812$8,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,492.72862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb974…f09bbacked Yes45c10,324$4,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,668.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda1e…f3cdbacked Yes73c10,121$7,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,365.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes45c10,000$4,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,450.868640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67d6…245ebacked Yes8c9,985$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.451421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-61.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50f7…3da2backed Yes32c9,969$3,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,198.681338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x448b…181abacked Yes8c9,800$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick23cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb74e…e0a6backed Yes8c9,730$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-79.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2278…3188backed Yes11c9,709$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.38633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3749…7ad0backed No75c9,578$7,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,356.27560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe232…042dbacked Yes26c9,544$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.